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Profile: phillman5
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User Name: phillman5
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Joined: Sunday, April 8, 2018
Last Visit: Sunday, April 8, 2018 12:46:21 PM
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Topic: The Monty Hall Problem
Posted: Sunday, April 8, 2018 12:35:56 PM
"a probability puzzle that has a history of stumping even respected mathematicians" I would trend to say that is 'fake news' propagated by people trying to make this sound like a hard problem. The correct answer can easily be proved by a short Monte Carlo simulation (like less than 10 line) program in any programing language. The crux is the contestant's original choice still has only a 1/3 chance of being correct, where as Monte, knowing the correct answer, can always show the contestant a goat behind a door as there is always one available separate from whatever door the contestant chose; also Monte is not going to show him whats behind his door. After this 'preview', Monte has ADDED information that was not available at time of the original choice. With this added infomation it is wise to make another choice, and the contestant can go with his original pick which still has only a 1/3 chance of being correct (it hasn't changed as Monte knowingly can always shows a goat), or the only other choice is the other door, which now has a 50/50 chance of being correct. Any respectable mathematician should be able to root this out in less than 30 seconds of thinking, or they are no longer a respected mathematician.

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