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Profile: idk
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User Name: idk
Forum Rank: Advanced Member
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Joined: Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Last Visit: Friday, July 24, 2015 4:02:55 PM
Number of Posts: 1,138
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  Last 10 Posts
Topic: Making Decisions - A Puzzle
Posted: Sunday, July 12, 2015 9:20:10 PM
Nancy is right. The probability is the same. Don't pay more for the second ticket.

And as NKM says, the probability is even less in the jelly bean one.
Topic: Does It Really Matter If the Human Species Survives?
Posted: Monday, July 6, 2015 10:32:30 PM
Good thread, Hope. You did a lot of work. Sorry I have been too busy to contribute much.

The rally yesterday was awesome.

Topic: Does It Really Matter If the Human Species Survives?
Posted: Tuesday, June 30, 2015 4:31:04 PM
Whatever you want to believe, FounDit, be my guest. No skin off my nose.

Just a couple of points of rebuttal before I sign off here - Of course the Toronto Star is an opinion piece - it is an editorial. It was not about climate change per se. He was not trying to prove climate change or that we need to do something now. As you say, he assumed it is happening. What he said was that the things that are making us unhealthy are the same things that are what the scientists are claiming causes global warming. Pollution of everything. So if you don't believe in global warming, he says, then at least care about human health. Kill two birds with one stone, as it were.

It seemed logical to me.

About fifteen years ago I used to be able to look out over Lake Ontario from Toronto and see an outline of land going towards the US. Most days now it is smoggy. Some days all I see is smog. Can't even see the lake. We produce some, but most of it comes up from the States from a northern industrial area. I could post pictures of plastic swirls in the ocean. Certain kinds of plastic BPA are carcinogenic. Animals, bees (we already had a discussion about the bees which you don't believe are dying),fish, and even the oceans are dying. The food is full of chemicals. We have epidemics of obesity, auto immune disease, and cancer. People die here every summer on smog alert days, when it goes off the scales. Hope has already mentioned most of those. You dismissed all those facts in a sentence. That it is just an opinion. Have you ever been here?

I also expected you to attack the government sources I provided because you don't like government. You have said so many times. You seem to dismiss scientists and their data as just ideologues. I already said that "very likely indeed" is the best you are going to get. There are no guarantees in this life about anything. Even if I could provide the sources of the hundreds of studies that are out there, you would find fault. There are lots of independent impartial studies, not funded by government or oil companies.

You are partly right about it being political. If one party thinks something is good, then the other has to say the opposite, no matter the topic or facts. And it is also about money, greed, corporations, and NIMBYism.

Why should my country do anything? It is the developing countries who are causing the problems.
Why should we, the developing countries, have to do it all? It is the developed countries that have used and are using most of the sources.
I don't want windmills any where near my land.
Why can't we use coal based plants?
What about my pond?

And when countries work together to find the political will to do something, that will still not prove anything except that they decided to work together in spite of skepticism on the part of some.

I am writing this in case others are interested in information, not to try to waste time trying to change your mind.
Topic: Does It Really Matter If the Human Species Survives?
Posted: Tuesday, June 30, 2015 11:14:27 AM
Absinthius, I can't comment on your on post without doing some research. ETA - I did a quick search and found that scientists have taken urban and rural areas, night and day time temperatures, and winter and summer effects into account when doing their studies. They are aware of what they call 'heat islands'. And urbanization has added to emissions. Definitely. So that is human influence there for sure.

I was still searching for my data and was going to post this, so will continue. (NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the USA government.)

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/indicators.php

You have to click on "Human Influence".

Here is the summary without maps and data.

"How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?

A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences. For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover. These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations."
Topic: Does It Really Matter If the Human Species Survives?
Posted: Tuesday, June 30, 2015 10:34:55 AM
"According to a new NOAA analysis, the warming trend during that period was somewhat smaller than the longer-term (1951-2012) trend, but it wasn’t zero. And with the latest data calibrations and the most recent two years of global temperatures added to the series—including record-warm 2014—the warming experienced since 1998 is on par with the rate observed in the second half of the 20th century.

Basically, the new analysis confirms what climate scientists have said all along: natural variability (such as the patterns described in this article) may cause the rate of warming to change from one decade to the next, but global warming is still underway."

Quote from one of the sources I saw.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-rising-past-decade

ETA - it may have slowed a bit but it did not stop, and has resumed in intensity the last two years.


Natural forces alone such as solar (the sun is not hotter) and volcanic activity cannot explain the observed warming. NASA says 'very likely human induced".

That is the most positive anyone can be about the future, so if that is not enough evidence, then nothing will be. We have to use the facts we have now. No One can predict the future. There are no crystal balls, only observation and deduction.
Topic: Does It Really Matter If the Human Species Survives?
Posted: Tuesday, June 30, 2015 10:08:58 AM
FounDit.

No where did I demand you change your opinion, nor did you demand I change mine.

"You would think" is postive so I am glad you do support a clean environment. What I don't understand is how you think selish people who think only of money will do anything for the general good and help to clean it up without governments and laws to make them do so. I do believe the laws they are considering are reductions in emissions, not what you can do with your pond.

And that is the whole idea - to get the worldto work together for the good of all. Fat chance of that with NIMBYism in full swing in all countries. (Edit - is concern about your land not doing the same thing?)

One can easily see how asking corporations to voluntarily reduce emissions has worked for us.

I shall see if I can find my data.

I am still looking for my source re changes, but did find this editorial in the Toronto Star. If you read it you will see the many ways that working towards curtailing climate change helps not only the health of the planet but that of humans and animals as well. They are repoting on a report in "The Lancet", a world medical journal.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2015/06/29/healing-the-planet-will-make-us-healthier-too-editorial.html
Topic: Does It Really Matter If the Human Species Survives?
Posted: Monday, June 29, 2015 8:32:58 PM
FouDit,
I did not read your article because there has been a more recent one with updated data correcting this. As new data emerges, things change. It is a matter of being flexible and willing to adapt to new information, rather than just calling it flip-flopping. I have seen the data for this latest study in a couple of places but have no link and no time to research for it.

I would think you would support cleaning up the environment if not for climate change but for animal and human health.

You and other skeptics will be glad to know that the US Supreme Court today blocked a key government attempt to limit pollution from the country's power plants. They did not state that they thought it was not needed but gave the ruling because economic costs apparently overrule the health and medical costs of pollution. US States and companies challenged the new rules of three years ago. They were to restrict emissions and toxins, including mercury.

It is always about money and the power of corporations.

The issue returns to the US Court of Appeals.
Topic: "Trouble loading data" anyone else?
Posted: Tuesday, June 23, 2015 5:26:19 PM
My computer was down recently. I tried using my spouse's computer and my grandchild's iPad last week and could not log in on either device. It did not give me a data error message, but a message that either address or password was wrong. I had checked my list of passwords and don't remember changing it.

I got my computer running again and I had stayed logged in. I have not tried on another device since then.

Edit - I am afraid to ever log off.
Topic: A and Q
Posted: Monday, June 22, 2015 11:09:11 PM
What did you say to your father, Anton, so that you will never get his keys again?

Let's go kayaking.
Topic: Phobia List
Posted: Monday, June 22, 2015 10:58:39 PM
rotisseriephobia - fear of being roasted, especially on television Mostly affects celebrities