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The lie of herd immunity Options
Oscar D. Grouch
Posted: Sunday, October 18, 2020 12:27:41 PM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 6/26/2014
Posts: 1,203
Neurons: 1,422,202
Aiming for herd immunity with COVID-19 would be ‘criminal,’ says one Seattle researcher
By Jennifer Wing • Oct 15, 2020

https://www.knkx.org/post/aiming-herd-immunity-covid-19-would-be-criminal-says-one-seattle-researcher

There has been some talk at the national level about aiming for herd immunity with this pandemic. Officials in the Trump administration are eager to reopen the economy.

Herd immunity would involve allowing COVID-19 to spread, which in theory would eventually make people immune.

Ali Mokdad says herd immunity is a false hope. Mokdad is with The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, a population health research center with the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. He's looking at hard-hit places, such as Ecuador and Mexico City, to see if herd immunity is happening. He says so far, it isn’t.

“In Ecuador right now, it's 45 percent of people infected, from zero positive surveys. Ecuador, is still having more cases. Mexico City, 40 percent," Mokdad said. "(COVID-19) is still going on. If we reach herd immunity at 40 percent, that means in the world, globally, 10 million deaths."

But that hasn't happened yet. There is no herd immunity at 40 percent.

In an area of the Amazon in Brazil, Mokdad says 60 percent of the population has contracted the virus. And new cases are still being reported. He says if 60 percent of the world's population got COVID-19, more than 15 million people would likely die.

“That's criminal," Mokdad said, “because it means let people die. It's even more criminal because it means let poor people die.”

But again, herd immunity isn’t happening at 60 percent. Mokdad says we haven’t seen what the lid is yet for herd immunity and to try and find out would cost tens of millions of lives.


As far as the economy goes, Mokdad says the U.S. could open things up if we followed what other countries are doing.

“China, South Korea, Japan — they haven't shut down. Business is open, but 95 percent of people are wearing masks,” Mokdad said.

The latest estimate from IHME says the total number of deaths in the U.S. is expected to be around 390,000 by the end of January. IHME also says that if 95 percent of people in the U.S. wore masks, nearly 80,000 lives could be saved.
Kampong
Posted: Sunday, October 18, 2020 2:43:02 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/30/2017
Posts: 47
Neurons: 75,291
Location: Stavanger, Rogaland, Norway
Nothing very new: This article from Sweden dated September 29th https://www.forskning.se/2020/09/29/nar-uppnar-vi-egentligen-flockimmunitet/(use google translate or similar to read The site is a serious one "research.sweden" ) point out that only 7.3% of the Stockholms population exhibit antibodies, despite a very heavy death-toll. The only positive thing is that they don't experience a second wave.

Here in Scandinavia we compare the different countries, as we otherwise have a very good national healthcare system, while we had a very different approach. Sweden has practiced a very (Trump-like?) liberal approach to the pandemics while the neighbours have had lock-down. Let's face it- lock down here has been very "light" compared to what's seen in Spain and France. But there is no doubt that if you accept a liberal approach, then you have to accept the a lot of middle-aged and elderly people will die.
( The Swedish level without a second wave is worse than Norway's with a second-wave )

by the way ... think that a liberal approach saves the economy? (link Drop in GDP
My country has a drop in GDP at 5.3%, while Sweden's has dropped by 6.3% and 1000% more mortality
Hope123
Posted: Sunday, October 18, 2020 10:45:43 PM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 3/23/2015
Posts: 9,563
Neurons: 54,659
Location: Kitchener, Ontario, Canada
Kampong wrote:
Nothing very new: This article from Sweden dated September 29th https://www.forskning.se/2020/09/29/nar-uppnar-vi-egentligen-flockimmunitet/(use google translate or similar to read The site is a serious one "research.sweden" ) point out that only 7.3% of the Stockholms population exhibit antibodies, despite a very heavy death-toll. The only positive thing is that they don't experience a second wave.

Here in Scandinavia we compare the different countries, as we otherwise have a very good national healthcare system, while we had a very different approach. Sweden has practiced a very (Trump-like?) liberal approach to the pandemics while the neighbours have had lock-down. Let's face it- lock down here has been very "light" compared to what's seen in Spain and France. But there is no doubt that if you accept a liberal approach, then you have to accept the a lot of middle-aged and elderly people will die.
( The Swedish level without a second wave is worse than Norway's with a second-wave )

by the way ... think that a liberal approach saves the economy? (link Drop in GDP
My country has a drop in GDP at 5.3%, while Sweden's has dropped by 6.3% and 1000% more mortality


Very interesting data, Kampong. Thanks.

"As well as saving lives, countries controlling the outbreak effectively may have adopted the best economic strategy too."

Tests, tracing, and a population with a belief in science and therefore compliant with preventive measures, along with some rules for business seem,to have been the best approach for both human life and human endeavours.

So denial and herd immunity theory just caused preventable deaths and didn't correlate with less GDP loss.
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