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Two recently established important facts about the pandemic Options
rmberwin
Posted: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 5:08:48 PM

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1) Children are relatively unaffected by the virus and they rarely if ever pass it on to adults. Here is a UCLA medical school doctor explaining: https://www.scpr.org/programs/airtalk/2020/05/18/20855/ (first item at 9:00)

2) The true fatality rate may be about 0.1 to 0.2 percent (the flu is 0.1). Here is a Stanford University doctor explaining: https://youtu.be/QSrMko1Mlbo

My reasonable guess about what triggered the lock-down is that medical professionals, wanting to be responsible, gave a worst-case scenario about what was happening and politicians then acted on the this. But there was also misinformation. E.g., early on Dr. Fauci said that the virus was ten times as deadly as the flu. But he had no basis for this statement, because systematic testing results were not available. Undoubtedly his claim resulted in a lot of panic.



Wilmar (USA) 1M
Posted: Tuesday, May 19, 2020 7:05:07 PM

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Yes, plus, the horribly invalid model software from the UK was used to base much of this on, and that was KNOWN to come from an unreliable source. That alone should get someone fired.

However, my gripe has been for a long time now, that once it was realized that people were NOT dropping dead in the streets as was sold to us -- the panic and hysteria-pushing should have ended. But, we find ourselves still living in fear of something that did not live up to the hype. The push should have been dropped at that point. We would all have been better off for it. And I didn't say ignored completely, but the shut-down of the country should have stopped immediately.

My $.02.
Hope123
Posted: Wednesday, May 20, 2020 12:38:33 AM

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1) is incorrect. Children get it, have died, and some have a very nasty associated syndrome.

2) The flu rate is 0.1. The Covid-19 rate is 1.4% as of May 2020. That is actually more than the ten times Fauci mentioned. And it is much more communicable. At the time Fauci had the data to date - he was not quoting off the top of his head. He's a scientist - and one with a respectable reputation for many years.

This is the best they can tell becuase there are many undetected cases and also many deaths at home where the cause is not known. Plus many cases were not tested after death and the death certificate just says pneumonia.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

::

It was predicted that when the protocols put into place worked the claims of “it was just panic” would emerge. And they are. Although why there is that attitude in the US when 90,000 people have died and the case numbers are not flattening out because people are fighting the protocols makes one wonder about the value placed on human life there.

Protective successful protocols put into place by some countries were social distancing and masks so that when you speak you don't spew droplets and thus protect others. And even if the mask only kept out some of the virus from the wearer, the case if contracted might be lighter. If anyone doesn't like the mask, they are going to hate the ventilator. Whistle

The reason other countries locked down and used protocols was so the healthcare systems did not get overwhelmed as they did in Italy where doctors had to choose who lived and who died. And the protocols have worked in those countries.

I suspect that those who think it was something that “did not live up to the hype” were not affected personally - yet. And have not seen or heard from doctors, nurses, and hospital scenes about what exactly this virus can do to the human body.

Also, many asymptomatic young people with the virus are now getting heart problems and strokes.
Hope123
Posted: Wednesday, May 20, 2020 1:32:13 AM

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No offence America, but I would like Canada’s southern border to remain closed until there’s a vaccine. It’s a tad out of control down there.

Most number of world cases - has 29% of world cases - and has less than 5% of world population.

Cases in the U.S. have already had a direct effect on Canadians. In Ontario, for example, the U.S. was by far the largest source of early imported cases.Only three early cases came from China - the rest were from the US.



https://www.ipsnews.net/2020/05/america-leads-world-covid-19-deaths/

Kirill Vorobyov
Posted: Wednesday, May 20, 2020 6:27:56 AM

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Wilmar (USA) 1M wrote:

However, my gripe has been for a long time now, that once it was realized that people were NOT dropping dead in the streets as was sold to us -- the panic and hysteria-pushing should have ended. But, we find ourselves still living in fear of something that did not live up to the hype. The push should have been dropped at that point. We would all have been better off for it. And I didn't say ignored completely, but the shut-down of the country should have stopped immediately.


I agree. This is clearly a world-wide politically motivated campaign, for which the virus was only a trigger and a pretext. Hence this obvious reluctance to lift the introduced measures and re-open world economies, no matter what convincing arguments are made for the need to do it. Instead, there's a clear desire on the part of a big and influential faction of the world's political and economic "elite" to prolong and extend this shit as much as possible.

Without access to any exclusive information, most people can only hypothesize what the end objectives are. One may be economic. Just imagine what a miracle all this is for somebody who's been sitting on tons of cash: all of a sudden, everybody around are ORDERED not to work, DIRECTED that they MUST stay at home and literally PROHIBITED from making their living! Of course, this forced "lockdown" almost immediately leads to an escalating poverty - people get bankcrupt, they lose their jobs, their businesses, their homes, they cannot serve their debts... Then the sitting on cash "oligarchs" come up and buy everything and everybody at fire-sale prices. An absolutely marvelous situation for those folks. So no matter what official ideologies political parties around the globe declare, you can now see who is who really, by seeing who support this large-scale racket and enslaving operation. E.g. most leftist groups, seemingly contrary to their stated ideologies of equality and taking care about ordinary people, from US democrats to Russian ex-communists under whatever the heck flags they now show, seem to be fully onboard.

But... Thinking about the next stage, how are they going to control the mass of desperate people that come out of this? Hence I think this emphasis on abolishment of constitutional freedoms, putting in place sophisticated surveillance systems (sold to us as "contact tracing"), restrictions on movement etc, etc.

I still hope we can avoid this future.

rmberwin
Posted: Wednesday, May 20, 2020 11:43:14 AM

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Hope123 wrote:

1) is incorrect. Children get it, have died, and some have a very nasty associated syndrome.

2) The flu rate is 0.1. The Covid-19 rate is 1.4% as of May 2020. That is actually more than the ten times Fauci mentioned. And it is much more communicable. At the time Fauci had the data to date - he was not quoting off the top of his head. He's a scientist - and one with a respectable reputation for many years.

The article you refer to quotes the WHO saying on Feb 29, "When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people were infected, and right now we don't know that number." Dr. Fauci made his statement on March 11. Furthermore, on March 27 the New York Times reported, "Because of the lack of testing capacity in the United States, the true case count and number of deaths are not known for sure." So, what was Dr. Fauci's statement based on?

Yes, children are sometimes affected, but the question is whether the actual danger outweighs the impact of shutting down normal schooling.

The article also mentions that the death rate is heavily skewed toward older people. But older people have limited time in any case. If someone in a nursing home dies after contracting the virus, a different cause, the seasonal flu for example, might have resulted in the same. This is why there are no 150 year-old people around.
FounDit
Posted: Wednesday, May 20, 2020 12:35:08 PM

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We need to stay strong and continue to resist. I shudder to think where we would be if Trump had not been elected President. Just imagine Hillary under these conditions, with almost unlimited power given to her by the Deep State...what a nightmare that would've been. The U.S. as we know it and want to keep it, would've ceased to exist.
Hope123
Posted: Wednesday, May 20, 2020 5:47:09 PM

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Hi again rmberwin.

Dr. Fauci said that at that point (no date on the video) “when you look at all the data including China” it seemed to be about 3%. But with all the asymptomatic cases not known, it is probably more like 1%. With seasonal flu being 0.1 % that is still ten times the lethality. And it is much more communicable.

https://youtu.be/2DekzGCJhJw

So he downgraded the number heavily from 3% to 1% because of the unknown quantities. Hindsight is always 20-20 amd more is known since then that the numbers are really just estimates because as the article I posted mentioned - many have it without knowing, and many have died, perhaps at home, and were not counted as Covid related.

The article I posted explained how they came up with the 1.4% figure now while estimating the unknowns.

So comparisons to other diseases are apples to oranges. Besides trying to compare it to the flu which has a vaccine, is trying to downplay the seriousness of Covid-19 which has no vaccine.

History does give us lessons if we are willing to listen. Governments would not quarantine during the 1918 flu because of the war effort. The second and third waves killed far more because of troop movement and a mutation.

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence


So take away the protocols now, open borders, allow people to travel, and you'll be waiting to see if this one mutates further. They suspect it has mutated somewhat already.

Countries with mostly rational citizens who helped flatten the curve and protect the healthcare system as well as keeping the death numbers down are now cautiously opening the economy again.

We went by appointment yesterday wearing masks to an appliance store originally listed as non essential that was just allowed to open, and they will do full service to deliver and install the new kitchen appliances we bought for our new home. They will remove the old appliances and the packaging while wearing gloves, masks, and doing social distancing. The staff wore masks too and used disinfectant wipes to handle appliances.

This is opening phase one of three planned for Ontario.

It is not so hard to open the economy slowly if done carefully, correctly, consistently, and with a plan.

BTW - when I see or hear the words “Deep State” it always reminds me of conspiracy theories so I dismiss the concepts immediately.
Hope123
Posted: Wednesday, May 20, 2020 5:55:04 PM

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A couple more things rmberwin - if it were your child who died because someone thought learning was more important than life, would you still want to open schools?

It is all well and good to be chomping at the bit to get back to work, making an abstract argument as arm chair critics. But ask how the families of those 90,000 Americans felt losing parents and grandparents, even children, or the parents who lost adult children or who young adults who will have heart conditions for the rest of their lives. Ask them which is more important. Ask yourself if someone you love is dispensable for the economy.

Countries that actually got substantial money to small businesses (not large corporations) and $2000 a month to the unemployed because of Covid had far more compliance by the people with requests and mandates. They felt they were helping and did not consider it as government control. And it worked. They are now opening up again.

Also, I resent being told that because I am old, my life is dispensable so someone can get a haircut.

(I desperately need a haircut but I'd rather wait than have the mortician do it. Whistle )

The economy can be opened if people do it sensibly while taking precautions.

What I see in news around the world are crowds of people in bars and restaurants really just wanting their social life back.
rmberwin
Posted: Wednesday, May 20, 2020 7:51:39 PM

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Hope123 wrote: A couple more things rmberwin - if it were your child who died because someone thought learning was more important than life, would you still want to open schools?

It is all well and good to be chomping at the bit to get back to work, making an abstract argument as arm chair critics. But ask how the families of those 90,000 Americans felt losing parents and grandparents, even children, or the parents who lost adult children or who young adults who will have heart conditions for the rest of their lives. Ask them which is more important. Ask yourself if someone you love is dispensable for the economy.

Countries that actually got substantial money to small businesses (not large corporations) and $2000 a month to the unemployed because of Covid had far more compliance by the people with requests and mandates. They felt they were helping and did not consider it as government control. And it worked. They are now opening up again.

Also, I resent being told that because I am old, my life is dispensable so someone can get a haircut.
I'm not suggesting a devil take the hindmost approach to older people. If resources had been better deployed, then the most vulnerable could have been better protected.

(I desperately need a haircut but I'd rather wait than have the mortician do it. Whistle )

The economy can be opened if people do it sensibly while taking precautions.

What I see in news around the world are crowds of people in bars and restaurants really just wanting their social life back.[/quote
I'm only skeptical of current US policies because there are qualified medical professionals who question the whole approach. It will be interesting to see what happens with Sweden.

Hope123
Posted: Wednesday, May 20, 2020 9:20:23 PM

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Yeah, rmberwin, we are coming from two different places and perspectives. Rmberwin wrote: If resources had been better deployed, then the most vulnerable could have been better protected. Exactly!

I see how chaotic and late the US response was and compare it with my own situation in Canada where so far we've “done good” and are hoping we don't blow it now. If it had been a perfect response we'd have closed all borders even to CDNs for the first two weeks as soon as we got case one.

It seems to me that besides Trump's denial of a problem (and he's still in denial) it is FEAR that unifies the Republicans and Trump supporters.

-fear as noted in FounDit's post of loss of “Constitutional Rights, a continuing theme in his writings
-fear of government (need guns to overthrow it)
-fear of those who are different
-fear of change
-fear to the point that they NEED guns
-fear that their guns will be taken away
-fear some have that their tax $ will go to blacks or Hispanics
-fear of science
-fear of the truth

What doesn't bother them is collateral damage of loss of life because of their fear of losing their rights. Over 92,000 now.

No fear of the loss of democracy to authoritarianism happening now especially with all oversight people being dismissed.

::

A perk of the virus -some benefits of shutting down
Shutting Down Benefits





Kirill Vorobyov
Posted: Thursday, May 21, 2020 7:40:28 AM

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Hope123 wrote:

Also, I resent being told that because I am old, my life is dispensable so someone can get a haircut.



If you belong to a risk group, you can take precautionary measures. This is your life and your choice. Minimize your contacts, wear mask, stay at home, or whatever.

But the fact that you personally fear the virus does not mean that rights and legitimate interests of hundreds of millions of other people including hairdressers and their clients can be infringed. Your life is as important as theirs, but it works the other way around too.
Hope123
Posted: Thursday, May 21, 2020 8:57:33 AM

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And then there is this idea from a British point of view about America that I had not even considered - the article says it is the same old racism problem.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/all-the-psychoses-of-us-history-how-america-is-victim-blaming-the-coronavirus-dead


Did Ronald Reagan actually say this?

Ronald Reagan attacked America’s post-war investment in social programs, Kotsko said, “by pointing out that the generosity is now extending to black people” and suggesting that “it’s better to tear down the system of solidarity than to allow the wrong people to get the benefits”.
Hope123
Posted: Thursday, May 21, 2020 9:03:54 AM

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Kirill Vorobyov wrote:
Hope123 wrote:

Also, I resent being told that because I am old, my life is dispensable so someone can get a haircut.



If you belong to a risk group, you can take precautionary measures. This is your life and your choice. Minimize your contacts, wear mask, stay at home, or whatever.

But the fact that you personally fear the virus does not mean that rights and legitimate interests of hundreds of millions of other people including hairdressers and their clients can be infringed. Your life is as important as theirs, but it works the other way around too.


Of course everyone's life is important - but not allowing industries that come in personal contact with others to work is protecting them from the virus too, not just the vulnerable group. It is why immediate financial support from the government for small business and for individuals was crucial. The $2000 a month for the unemployed has been extended to October in Canada and people received it at the start within days of applying in Canada.

Edited to add - And I repeat and repeat - the main reason for the lockdown was to protect the healthcare system and once that is done the economy can be reopened slowly. But people are inherently impatient and want everything immediately back to normal, meaning as before, including their social lives.
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