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Profile: Andrew Schultz
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User Name: Andrew Schultz
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Joined: Tuesday, July 7, 2015
Last Visit: Monday, November 12, 2018 8:23:31 PM
Number of Posts: 426
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  Last 10 Posts
Topic: 90% of voters say they have or will vote in the US midterm elections
Posted: Monday, November 12, 2018 7:37:08 PM
Thankfully, the turnout was enough to help the US avoid disaster last Tuesday.

Felon voting rights passed by referendum in Florida. And by felon, that's not violent felons, but more like people who got caught with a bit of weed more than once.

But we still need to do so much better. I hope many of the newly registered voters continue to be engaged through 2020 and beyond. And I'm heartened by the organization I saw across the board.

@Peter O'Connor: I agree! One problem is, people like this seem so sophisticated at first. And it's true, in a way, voting only does so much. But that is because, in a healthy democracy/republic, voting is the absolute minimum.

100th person on TFD to 1 million neurons.
Topic: Repulseicans plan to kill medicare, social security and medicaid
Posted: Wednesday, October 24, 2018 4:54:54 PM
Y111 wrote:
Does anyone still believe the debt will be paid?


Not with Republicans in charge. The US is rich enough to pay it eventually, but we do need a much better fiscal policy. Clinton reversed the Bush/Reagan deficits, and Obama managed to reduce them despite a Republican congress for 6 of his 8 years.

As for name-calling:

People who can win without it don't need it. People who can't just make themselves look worse.

This is not both-siderism.

I've found people on the left who engage aggressively in name-calling (okay, we all do it a bit, and this is a pretty emotional topic) to be as little worth spending time and energy on as people from the right. I feel the right is not as good as the left for society, but that's a separate issue. But I've had people on the left do a lot of name-calling just to get attention, and unfortunately, when they do so, they find the only way to keep getting attention is to start on name-calling at people who mostly agree with them. I've walked away or become a lurker in a few communities like that.

100th person on TFD to 1 million neurons.
Topic: Is There More Violence Today or Just Better Communication?
Posted: Wednesday, October 24, 2018 4:47:18 PM
I forget who showed a graphic here that showed the incidence of war had dropped steadily in the 20th century (e.g. % of people in the world in countries affected by war, or people killed as a result of war) but because there are so many more nations and better coverage, it seems worse.

It also was easier to hide, say, the activities of the KKK in 1900--it could only be reported via word of mouth and not as easily filmed. That's not possible today.

We still have incidents like this. And it hasn't just popped up lately--for instance, Obama effigies were burned in November 2008 after he was elected.

In Chicago, there's been an uptick in reporting of police brutality--but this may just be a case of people having and being able to use video cameras. The perpetrators have been arrested more regularly now. LaQuan McDonald was shot by Jason VanDenBerg sixteen times, and it was recorded. A lot of people have lost jobs and pensions, and panels have been formed to look into the police culture of silence.

But I think it is going to have to happen much more often, too often, before people and politicians really take it seriously.

I think a lot more is being exposed, but somehow, we need to do even better, and we need to recognize that some things that are "just a joke" *should* be treated that way. That a percentage of people who say "aww, just a joke" will get serious later, and it will be ugly.

Germany has certain laws against Nazi symbology, and I think they are affected.

I can't answer for religious fighting, but it has been going on a while, and it is a lot more difficult to sweep under the carpet now.

I'd like to think, like Dr. King said, the moral arc of the universe is long and it bends towards justice. But it will have wobbles. And we are wobbling right now. People who wish to incite things have found reliable ways to fake things believably to stir others up on both sides.

100th person on TFD to 1 million neurons.
Topic: What We Have Become
Posted: Saturday, October 20, 2018 4:16:45 PM
Sounds like someone made a straw man and not a snowman.

100th person on TFD to 1 million neurons.
Topic: Why Trump is going to lose in 2020.
Posted: Thursday, October 18, 2018 11:06:59 PM
Hope123 wrote:
Thanks Andrew and Proggy,

I think Avenatti has the right idea, though. Dems need someone who is a real fighter - but classy while doing it if that is possible. It is hard to fight a street fighter con without getting down and dirty yourself. (Although I'm sure they could avoid such nasty name calling as "Pocohontas" and "horseface".) Someone who can beat Trump campaigning but then knows enough to change to governing mode would be ideal.

I like the young Kennedy - Joe is it? But I guess he is too young and inexperienced. He has been a senator and he has been taught politics from birth. This admin shows that experience is necessary if chaos is to be avoided, although T's supporters think he got a lot of what they wanted done in spite of it.

Beto O'Rourke has a lot of support on Twitter but someone was begging for more support for him saying Cruz was ahead. The video I saw of him was impressive.

Bernie has to unite his supporters with the middle or he'll split the vote again. He and Biden are rather old. Do you really think the US is ready for a woman president?

As for info I have learned about the US govt on the forum and the voter purging and smear campaigns, I am so disappointed to have the United States of America fall off the pedestal where I had placed it, not believing the opinions of others even before Trump.

What about the Republican candidate. Does the incumbent automatically get the nomination again?

Just as an aside - getting up there myself I find it hard to understand how these politicians find the stamina and interest to keep going that long after 65. The presidency - to be done correctly and taken seriously - is a young person's job. Michelle said Obama was often working into the wee hours of the morning. Most regular folks want to retire even earlier than 65 and enjoy some leisure time.


Hope,

Ugh! I let the computer eat my first response. Maybe this will be more to the point.

I agree we need Avenatti types, just not running for office. He says what needs to be said...then says what really doesn't.

Rep. Joe Kennedy seems earnest but doesn't have the gravitas of Beto O'Rourke. Cruz may've finally done himself in--or his wife may have--by complaining that they can't afford two homes on a senator's salary. O'Rourke is doing a fantastic job of GOTV. We need that!

We also need other attack dogs like Rep. Ted Lieu of California, who is great on Twitter. Brian Schatz and Mazie Hirono (junior/senior senator from Hawaii) also do great jobs of messaging. Schatz has one redirect he likes to use. This may not be a direct example, but it's what he does: "The thing about Kanye meeting Trump in the oval office is, millions of people will lose health insurance if the Republicans keep the House and Senate."

Of course, this isn't entirely logical, but it's not meant to be. It's an emotional gut-level poke to remind us to focus on what's important! Don't use up all our energy on outrage.

Sanders I think is better to GOTV too and to convince very left-wing types that a Democrat is not perfect but better than a Republican.

The Oval Office definitely aged Obama more than it should have, and same for GW Bush (who IMHO didn't work as hard but yeah I'm biased) and Clinton.

As for primaries? Usually, unless a president is doing badly, he does not get a major primary challenge. Obama and Clinton maybe weren't popular, but nobody really challenged them. Bush Jr, too. Eisenhower and Reagan also had no primary challenger and got second terms.

Bush Sr got a challenge from Pat Buchanan who got 25% of the vote, and of course Ross Perot showed up too.

Jimmy Carter had a primary challenge from Ted Kennedy, and Reagan challenged Gerald Ford with a primary. Carter and Ford both served only one term, as did Bush Sr. Lyndon Johnson stepped down rather than fight Robert Kennedy in a primary.

So just rumblings that a Flake, Graham, Kasich, Haley or even Pence (I wouldn't put it past him) will run a primary is bad news for Trump.

A primary challenger is a distraction from the president governing, and without enough support, the challenger's name may be mud in party circles for a long time. That didn't affect Ted Kennedy's prolific Senate deal making, but he was conspicuously absent from the 1984 and 1988 Democratic primaries.

100th person on TFD to 1 million neurons.
Topic: comb over (v)?
Posted: Thursday, October 18, 2018 10:55:39 PM
QP wrote:
Hi friends,

People is protesting something, they raise up a label saying "YOU CAN'T COMB OVER BIGOTRY."

Does it mean "you can not ignore people who have different opinions"?


Thank you
QP


That is a good guess, but not quite.

A comb-over is a hair style where a man uses his hair elsewhere to cover up a bald spot. Donald Trump does this. One thing about comb-overs is that they are often not really fooling anyone who looks half carefully. http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Comb-over

To comb over is to create a comb over hairstyle, or use a comb to move hair over a bald spot.

So the sign is likely saying, Donald Trump's bigotry can be hidden slightly, but it is fooling nobody who looks into things. There's no easy fix to make it disappear. Or even if the worst bigotry hides from immediate sight, it's still there, and it's not fooling anyone.

100th person on TFD to 1 million neurons.
Topic: Scottish Power will become 100% wind
Posted: Wednesday, October 17, 2018 1:36:29 AM
Sarrriesfan wrote:
pasteur wrote:
I'm anxious to see the consequences of the shift to total green power. They may be a harbinger for other countries' decisions. I hope the news will be very encouraging in the years to come, but I wonder what will be the financial price. I also can not grasp the technological aspects of the change. Good luck, Scotland!


It's worth noting this has not been done by Scotland as a country but by a private company called Scottish Power, it is a large one and supplies power to other parts of England and North Wales as well, but it's not the only supplier in Scotland and they are not all renewables.

As progpens original souce article states they sold their gas stations to other generating companies who will still use them.


I agree we can't get too optimistic, but still, I don't think a business would make this switch if they didn't find it profitable. And by profitable I mean even more profitable than gas or oil, which has always worked out pretty well.

100th person on TFD to 1 million neurons.
Topic: Why Trump is going to lose in 2020.
Posted: Wednesday, October 17, 2018 1:28:16 AM
I'm concerned his approval hasn't gone below 40%. But it's never gone terribly far above.

There are so many things to consider between now and 2020. I don't know if it's in anyone's interest to jump out too soon, because so much gets washed away in the news cycles, and they may be remembered as trying to chase after glory when there is so much to do.

I will say this, though. If Democrats take 250 in the House, I think a lot of Republicans will wake up, rediscover their missing consciences and suddenly stop excusing Trump's behavior or do more than just hint he really could be a bit more presidential.

And that said, I'll speculate anyway.

My current pick for the Democratic candidate, if I had to, would be Amy Klobuchar. She is the senator who questioned Brett Kavanaugh about his drinking at his confirmation hearing, and when he tried to turn the question around, she told him to stick to it. She is tough and experienced, and perhaps a "back to sanity" ticket would work. If she is not the best crowd worker, well, the right VP could balance that. Kamala Harris has been impressive, too, and she has more charisma. One other interesting possibility is Doug Jones, the junior senator from Alabama. I'm impressed with how he frames things. A lot of people think Kristen Gillibrand of New York could be the candidate, but she may be seen as too much of a politician. She's changed her views and votes to be more liberal since she moved up to the Senate from the House, where she represented a conservative area of New York. She's good at politics, but she might suffer the John Kerry treatment.

I would gladly bet even money there is going to be a woman on the Democrats' 2020 ticket, even though Joe Biden is leading in the too-early polls. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/16/democratic-candidates-poll-2020/1656532002/

I can't see him keeping that lead as others get name recognition. I think he is too old. Bernie Sanders has 13%, which is lower than I expected. But I hope Sanders rallies youths and people who haven't voted before to do so. I think that is a good place for him. And I think the president will be someone people sort of know and figure they'll be ready some day but not now. Sort of like Obama in 2008. I still remember thinking it might be tough for him to follow, say, 8 years of Hillary Clinton.

One odd candidate I've read about is Beto O'Rourke. He promised to serve his full term, but IF he loses to Ted Cruz, he'd be free to run for President. I'm impressed how he's gotten Texans to get out and vote, and if he can do the same for America, he will be valuable, whether or not he is on the ticket. Democrats need people who will get out the vote and stump for the rights of people to vote.

I'd like to throw out a few more links to 538. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-third-ish-2020-democratic-primary-draft-got-weird/ describes the futility of trying to see who is in the lead, or why. Also, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-behaving-like-a-2020-presidential-candidate/ checks off on who has tried to set the most groundwork for a 2020 run. You may notice Jeff Flake and John Kasich, who are Republicans, have 4 of 7 check marks, indicating Trump is open to being primaried ... which could take focus from the main campaign even if he does win.

Anyway. That's probably too much speculation. But the Democrats have a lot of good choices. Quite bluntly I'm glad nobody's been showboating or trying to be the clear leader. (Michael Avenatti doesn't count. He won't. He can't. If he does, I give up.)

100th person on TFD to 1 million neurons.
Topic: Why Trump is going to lose in 2020.
Posted: Monday, October 15, 2018 10:17:31 PM
Hmm. I'm more concerned about the 2018 midterms.

The Senate looks bad for Democrats, but the House looks very good. If the Democrats take the house, we will have a lot of hearings we should have had with the R's in charge. Lots of people are going to be subpoenaed. It should be fun, provided of course the Democrats close the deal.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

100th person on TFD to 1 million neurons.
Topic: OG ?
Posted: Thursday, September 27, 2018 12:59:12 PM
"OG" is likely short for "Original Gangster." It was first used by American rapper Ice-T as the title of his fourth album and the featured song on the album.

It's a suitable substitute for "original" since it starts with O and has G in the center and, of course, it's a bit quicker to say. It's come to mean the very first of its kind. In this case (and others) it's used ironically/for humor, since Jesus, Mary and Joseph weren't particularly violent. It's a bit more colorful than "I'm/their" the first, but it's not offensive.

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=OG has definitions to back this up, though the language on some of the later definitions is a bit ... rough.

100th person on TFD to 1 million neurons.

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