The U.S. Senate is poised to vote on a non-binding resolution that basically states that a nuclear-armed Iran is unacceptable and a strategy that accepts this eventuality and responds to the situation with a new regional cold war strategy of containment is unacceptable. This is meant to signal that military action is a certainty to prevent an Iranian bomb.

I have several rather compelling reasons why containment is a valid option, first, let me say:

Containment is a possibility, not a certainty. There may be reasons/circumstances for military action. That option shouldn't be ruled out. At any point, if the Iranians block the straits of Hormuz, we might just as well take a shot at their nuclear program, along with destroying their Navy. I'm not saying to roll over and accept Iranian nukes as unaviodable. Try the full range of options short of military. Their economy is imploding. Sanctions and isolation may work. Or, they may give a pretext for military action.

Reasons for Containment:

1. The Mullahs and the Iranian government probably pray for an attack:

a. Don't forget, the Arab Spring was largely a Persian Spring first. It was smothered, but the discontent lingers. The economy is moribund. The youth of Iran chafe under their medieval regime. They yearn for more. The zealots in the Revolutionary Council would welcome a foreign enemy like Israel or the Great Satan to deflect popular discontent.

b. They know that the cost to their nuclear program will be minimal. It is dispersed and much of it is housed underground, in the sides of mountains, in hardened shelters.

2. Containment works:

a. Ask the Soviets. You keep them in a box, confident that their own internal weaknesses will cause implosion.

b. I'd say ask Iraq. It was working. Their military was rusting in place. They had ceased to be an offensive threat to their neighbors. But, for domestic political reasons, the previous US President chose to attack.

c. It can work in Iran. The weak sanctions in place already have them threatening to cut off oil in the Gulf. They make my case for me. They are desperate for a foreign enemy. Unless they foolishly act on their threats, let's deny them the crutch of "enemies at the gates".

3. If they do get the bomb, they will discover that with great power comes great responsibility. Nukes have only been used once, by the USA, to end the bloodiest war the world has ever known.

Pakistan has the bomb and never used it,
Her mortal enemy, India, has the bomb, and has never used it,
Geez, North Korea has some kind of nuclear ability, and those nut-jobs haven't used it.

The lesson: once you have the bomb, you dare not use it...lest your own country be turned into a glass parking lot. Israel has dozens of nukes, it's an open secret. The Mullahs will find it necessary to put on their big-boy pants and act like adults. The alternative being so much worse... it is called M.A.D. ...what a drag it is getting old!

Finally...fodder for another topic: Why is Israel so hot for a military action? Do they fear the Arab Spring? Do they long for a conflict to guarantee the radicalization of Egypt, Libya, et al, so that the good old days where Israel is the only democracy are restored. Much less complicated to keep gobbling up the West Bank that way.

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"Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless, and do no wrong". (Knight's Oath, Kingdom of Heaven)

Martyg,

You are aware that after 45 years of containment, the cold war ended in a victory for the West? This isn't my opinion, it's recent history bordering on current events! The Soviet Union, bankrupt and beaten folded up, Solidarity won the day in Poland, the Berlin Wall came down, East Germany was reuinted with the West, the dictators in the old client Soviet states were sent packing. Cooler heads did prevail. Ours, in the West, and we were rewarded with victory. Is it possible that you don't know this?

My reference was historical, not relating to the current government in Russia. I assume that they, unlike you, are not so foolish in their own assessment of their (lacking) strength.

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"Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless, and do no wrong". (Knight's Oath, Kingdom of Heaven)

For the same reason we don't allow nut jobs to carry guns in our city streets.

There´re nut jobs everywhere. Some with nuclear arms for a long time now.

Do you expect Iranians allow the "nut jobs to carry guns" in their city streets? C'mon lad!

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*It's wonderful to know that all languages are Greek if not understood.*

More evidence:

http://news.yahoo.com/canadian-wheat-board-wont-iran-talk-112438429.html


Memo to the hardliners in Israel. An attack would foolish.

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"Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless, and do no wrong". (Knight's Oath, Kingdom of Heaven)

Don't make the same mistake again. Listen to the song and recall how Iraq was systematically destroyed. MP3

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*It's wonderful to know that all languages are Greek if not understood.*

Dear Magie, put assumptions aside, clear your mind from pre-war media-hype (they use your potential fear) and ask a question to yourself: Who really brought harm for whom throught the last 65 years, since Israel is on their lands?

Egypt couldn't stop Israel to grow and couldn't do any harm, the small states around Israel couldn't do anything (they better have fought with each other), Iraq couldn't harm Israel even it was destroyed twice by the Israeli alliance, you see Israel is safer and stronger than ever and especially in the presence of the Amerian safe gaurding bases. Israel knows it's strong of the strongest position in the region. That's why this time she's heading on her own war.

Did you read the wikipedia link above? The Iranian official clerics has declared that using the Weapons of Mass Destruction is prohbited in Islam. And Iran has signed AEIA treaty where Israel hasn't. Read the article given above. Thanks.

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*It's wonderful to know that all languages are Greek if not understood.*

Maggie,
why are you calling the opinions presented in National Review Online FACTS?

NR describes itself as "America's most widely read and influential magazine and web site for conservative news, commentary, and opinion."

It's not all facts or truth that is written on a paper or published in internet.

EDIT:

And - just to see the other side of the coin -
have a look at the official Islamic Republic News Agency site. Today's first story:

Supreme Leader: Unified world Muslims to conquer all enemies

Tehran, Feb 10, IRNA – Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said Friday that Muslim Ummah will attain dignity and prosperity through their allegiance to the path of Prophet Mohammad (PBUH).


If you read the article further you need no other evidence of the nation being lead by a wacky.

The other articles on that site are as biased. This is an official propaganda site. Nothing else.

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I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

Maggie,
did you look at the IRNA site I linked?
After reading their official statements I AM afraid of the thread Iran addresses to its neighbours and other countries.

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I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

I'd point out the disconnect between heated rhetoric, official and otherwise from Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. sources:

It's all for domestic consumption for political gain. They wouldn't follow through even if they had the bomb. Why?

Nuclear war is madness. It cannot be contemplated:

1. Set aside the impressive defenses that Israel, in cooperation with the USA has, and assume a successful Iranian nuclear attack on Israel:

a. The Iranians claim to be the champions of Palestinian rights. I don't see how vaporizing or irradiating their friends on the West bank furthers their cause. This will result. The geographical distances are tiny. A Nuke anywhere in Israel will result in the slaughter of uncounted Palestinians.

b. The aftermath of a nuclear strike will render the Holy Land uninhabitable for decades at least. Probably more.

c. The result of a neculear strike will be the total destruction of Muslim holy sites...does Iran really want to vaporize the Dome of the Rock...

Rendering the Holy Land into a desolation cannot advance their cause. Even the staunchest radical must see this.

2. M.A.D. Mutually Assured Destruction. Can the Iranian people doubt that Israel will retaliate "massively" to borrow the cold war nomenclature. Massive retaliation was sterile phrase that meant you'll be wiped out if you dare it. Israel, in any scenario you devise, will still get their nukes launched. Iran will cease to exist.

I believe that there are zealots running Iran. I also believe that zealots of a lesser virulence, but zealots nonetheless, run Israel. There are shrill zealots influenceing, or trying to influence, policy in the USA.

I don't believe any of these people are truely mad. They may want the world to think they are mad in an effort to gain leverage of some sort or another, like North Korea has resorted to from time to time.

However, when it comes down to it, a nuclear armed Iran doesn't mean nuclear war. They won't start it. They can't "win" it, and they aren't that stupid, whatever their rhetoric.

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"Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless, and do no wrong". (Knight's Oath, Kingdom of Heaven)

Maggie, my point is that when you lack the means, it's easy to shout "Jihad!" from the mountaintops. Talk is cheap.

I think the ranks of the holy warriors would be completely depleted were they to ever have the bomb and have to contemplate the reality of the consequences of nuclear war.

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"Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless, and do no wrong". (Knight's Oath, Kingdom of Heaven)

Maggie, dear!

I would not give here links to any site referring them as FACTS. If I give links to sites of any political party, some religious organisation, or some other similarly biased parties, I'll point it out.

Your NRO is politically biased and their "news", blogs, and columns are just opinions full of rhetoric and filtered facts.

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I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

Maggie,

I don't doubt that you can find madmen (and women) that are willing to strap bombs to themselves, to kill themselves and to kill others.

These are individuals. I don't believe that entire nations will committ suicide with no possible gain for the sacrifice but to to cause the ruination of that thing they love.

As twisted as the logic is, the people that strap bombs to themselves believe they are advancing a cause: in the case of Muslim extremists, the recovery of Jerusalem, nationhood for Palestine. Their actions will not lead to the extermination of the thing they pledge allegiance to.

When Japanese pilots went to certain death on Kamikazi missions, they were defending their homeland and their emperor. You might think them mad. But, if by their actions they guaranteed the destruction of home and emperor, I think that recruitment would have suffered drastically.

Nuclear war will destroy everything that these people hold dear. They won't do it.

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"Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless, and do no wrong". (Knight's Oath, Kingdom of Heaven)

Individuals are in charge of governments, and individuals teach their doctrines to those who will follow. How many 'individuals' would it take to detonate a nuclear device?

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"The nearest thing to eternal life we will ever see on this earth is a government program." - Ronald Reagan

There are over a billion Muslims, and you are showing pictures of ten demonstrators.
Islam, Arabic culture and suicide bombings are not the same.
Muslims around the world share some religious culture but you can't bunch people in one package like that.
You and I might share the same cultural background, but I can tell you we are totally different.

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I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

Maggie,
with your logic someone could claim the Pope and Catholic Church represents the very thoughts of all the people in the Western hemisphere, or that Berlusconi is the face to all European politics.

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I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

H, you know I'm generally on the same page as you with most things. But on this one I have to digress. The people in charge of that country are crazy as shithouse rats and should be dealt with as such.

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Sanity is not statistical