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What's Happening with Brexit? Also - Just Too Many Humans? Options
Hope123
Posted: Friday, September 28, 2018 4:10:36 AM

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Location: Burlington, Ontario, Canada
Question One - The UK economy has shrugged off fears of no Brexit deal with the EU so far, but what will happen to all their economies if there is no deal? Should they be worried? Can the UK get other markets? Should the UK listen to Timmermans? Anyone from there have any updates?

I saw the articles on the links in the news - The EU is not backing down to the UK which is to leave the EU in six months. Timmermans says the Brexiteers thought the EU would fold because of the German car market, but that maybe the UK should change its mind now they have the facts - the EU is going to preserve its own integrity from the Brexit threat and that of "eastern European countries challenging liberal democratic values..."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/27/brexiters-failed-to-grasp-significance-of-single-market-to-eu-says-brussels-chief-frans-timmermans

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/27/brexit-economy-grows-resilient-despite-political-chaos

Question two - I was quite interested in Timmermans' remarks about Africa being the next immigration challenge for Europe if they don't work to make young Africans want to see their future as Africa.

Looking at all the world chaos caused by protectionism and fights for power, territory, and resources, has the human population just become too successful? Are we almost at the point of too many humans and not enough resources, especially if those resources are concentrated with the few?


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Romany
Posted: Friday, September 28, 2018 5:03:39 AM
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Hope -

I don't take much notice of the ins and outs of it. The decision's made - que sera, sera. I'd be stoked if it was reversed but, as petitions and marches and talking heads haven't changed anything see no point in endlessly banging on: Goverments gonna do what governments do - and we are just going to have to suck it up.

Although different language was used, all the "chaos caused by protectionism and fights for power, territory, and rescources" has been going on since the beginning of the human historical saga. Pick any year of our recorded history and find out what was happening that year in China, Europe, Asia, etc. and it will look like global chaos, too.

The only difference is that we didn't HAVE a global outlook until the technological revolution. So if things were calm and quiet in our own tribe, settlement, city, state or country, we didn't know how things were going elsewhere. We considered the world a peaceful place purely because of our ignorance of what was happening elsewhere.

If the internet were to go down globally we'd probably go back to thinking locally again and be perfectly happy in our ignorance!
ozok
Posted: Friday, September 28, 2018 9:17:20 AM
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Quote:

If the internet were to go down globally we'd probably go back to thinking locally again and be perfectly happy in our ignorance!



Yer...back to the good old 1930s with Nazi Deutschland.

That would suit a lot of modern day wannabe 'dictators'.





just sayin'
Hope123
Posted: Friday, September 28, 2018 10:54:07 AM

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Location: Burlington, Ontario, Canada
From an article in this morning's email from Lancet, a world respected medical magazine:

With 45 million medication packs being exported from the UK to the EU monthly and 37 million shipping the other way, a deal of some sort is needed, he says. Dickson points out that other products—for example, insulin—are not made in the UK at all. Conversely, a prostate cancer drug is only made in the UK and supplies 80 countries, including all of Europe. “If the UK and the EU do not plan properly, both sides will suffer”, he stresses.

The UK's and Europe's trade have become heavily interdependent over the past 40 years.

“It is not just issues around the packs of drugs crossing the border, there's a complex supply chain, with multiple border crossings behind each product”, says Dickson. The UK also only represents 2–3% of the global market, and “if the UK appears less attractive as a manufacturing base, then new drug production will not come here”...As we leave the EU, if we hope to develop a healthy economy based on the most productive and healthy workforce possible, it will be important for the public's health to be core to trade negotiations"

...Thompson acknowledges the challenges remain, and, with time running out, “whether the details of any specific sector will be understood by those doing a complex negotiation at 2AM is the bit that worries us all.”


The UK and EU health systems seem to be hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

This is similar to the interdependence and complex supply chain between Canada and the US trade, especially in the auto sector. It is expected that Canada will walk away from NAFTA talks because the US wants an agreement where the US can still impose tariffs at whim through a "national security" clause. Why have a trade agreement to cancel tariffs when the supposed partner can apply tariffs whenever he gets up from the wrong side of the bed? Or when they want access that will make the cost of drugs go up in Canada when the US drugs are so overpriced in comparison. There are other intractable problems with US demands of Canada. If the UK can sort their exit without the EU, then Canada should be able to go it without the US - both by finding new markets. But it is too bad that then new agreements will have to be negotiated with no guarantees that new agreements will be any better than what was already working. At least the UK had a choice. Canada does not. We have spent the whole time since the beginning trying to keep our own culture and not be usurped by the US.

The US recent policy is another example of protectionism spreading in the world, going back to the failed economic policies of the thirties when, besides the rise of Nazi policy in Germany, 15 European countries with Proportional Representation slid from democracy to dictatorship.

At least the EU and the UK are bargaining in good faith.

Romany, you say Brexit is done. If things look too bleak for the UK, could they go back to the people? Or is that political suicide?

Setting up a free account with email and password allows free reading of this article from which the quotes come.

The Lancet - Brexit and Healthcare

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Sarrriesfan
Posted: Friday, September 28, 2018 12:25:48 PM

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We already have a major crisis in migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea, which is probably going to get worse.

But with regard to Brexit being done, the problem is that the Conservative Government since the 2017 election has required the Ulster Unionists to make up enough votes to govern. Mrs May cannot afford to make any changes to the border status of Ireland and the UK or her Premiership will fall. So there is a stand-off between the EU who want a settlement that would have Northern Ireland treated separately from the rest of the UK with an open border with Eire and the UK that says all of the UK is one nation and has to be treated the same.

She is also weak due to the size of her majority in other ways it magnifies the importance of some very hard line Brexiters in her party, in order to get her legislative program through the house she cannot ignore their votes and they know it. With a larger majority if 6 hardliners rebelled it would not matter but currently those 6 could cause her leadership to fail.

It does worry me I am one of those Insulin users whose supplies could be disrupted, runningbout does not bear thinking of.

I lack the imagination for a witty signature.
ozok
Posted: Sunday, September 30, 2018 8:20:38 AM
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Quote:


It does worry me I am one of those Insulin users whose supplies could be disrupted, runningbout does not bear thinking of.



Your concern about insulin supply after Brexit is quite understandable. Not a nice thought at all for all those peoples that are in such a situation.

Fortunately the UK government I have read has a contingency plan. There have been numerous reports about this ‘crisis’

see here



just sayin'
Hope123
Posted: Sunday, September 30, 2018 9:37:47 AM

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Sarrr, I hope the news is as good as the article Ozok provided for you!

It is not quite the same as yours is a daily need, but I know a bit of the feeling when I was not able to update my Epi Pen for several months nor get the Marcaine for the shots for my back pain. I don't know why there was a problem re supply of either. I think the Jr. Epi Pen is still in short supply. Fortunately my risk for anaphylaxis is low, but imagine the parents of these kids with severe food or bee sting allergy.

This link contains an article from yesterday of what Brexit is costing the UK. Slower growth and 500 million pounds a week!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week

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Sarrriesfan
Posted: Sunday, September 30, 2018 5:17:13 PM

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Location: Luton, England, United Kingdom
Hope123 wrote:
Sarrr, I hope the news is as good as the article Ozok provided for you!

It is not quite the same as yours is a daily need, but I know a bit of the feeling when I was not able to update my Epi Pen for several months nor get the Marcaine for the shots for my back pain. I don't know why there was a problem re supply of either. I think the Jr. Epi Pen is still in short supply. Fortunately my risk for anaphylaxis is low, but imagine the parents of these kids with severe food or bee sting allergy.

This link contains an article from yesterday of what Brexit is costing the UK. Slower growth and 500 million pounds a week!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week


I read the article Ozok provided and frankly from my own experience I don't trust it.

Currenlty I am allowed to order new supplies of insulin 10 days before my current stock runs out, but on more than one occasion my Chemist has had to ring around in order to get the stuff I need in time. On one occasion I had to use a supply of a different insulin supposedly a similar mix, which is not ideal, they act different and when you have your body tuned to one changing is a problem. That's without any Brexit troubles it will be more difficult later I am sure.

The problem will be at the borders with the sheer weight of traffic that can build up at places like Dover.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Stack

I guess they could fly medicines in, but there are a lot of other goods as well.

Hope I read there's a problem with Epipens at the moment here too, with their shelf lives extended to cope.




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Hope123
Posted: Sunday, September 30, 2018 8:29:16 PM

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Yeah, my doc told me years ago that since it is imperative that Epi Pens remain potent, they put a liberal best before date on them.

I guess being on an island, even a large one, is always a consideration. It would be nice then if they would give you more than ten days to place an order. Must be scary wondering if it is going to be there on time!

I know I switched compounding pharmacies because I never knew if my thyroid ordered a week before was ready - because she had emergencies. And it is not like insulin - missing a day or two of thyroid doesn't catch up with you for a month, but it is not good to miss a dose and cause fluctuations. It is hard enough to keep it on an even keel as it is. I react to the excipients in drugs so get everything I can compounded. Expensive - 3 month supply is over $150 for a $15 drug as compounding is labour intensive. Fortunately my private insurance that usually only covers generic drugs accepted a letter from my doc and I get 85% paid.

The UK has a pharmacare plan too? They used to talk about it here but it looks as if our new idiot premier is going to cut healthcare funds and allow for profit into the province - two-tiered healthcare after we protected our cherished universal healhcare for so many years.

Good luck with your insulin now and after Brexit!

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Sarrriesfan
Posted: Monday, October 1, 2018 4:35:02 AM

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Location: Luton, England, United Kingdom
Hope123 wrote:
Yeah, my doc told me years ago that since it is imperative that Epi Pens remain potent, they put a liberal best before date on them.

I guess being on an island, even a large one, is always a consideration. It would be nice then if they would give you more than ten days to place an order. Must be scary wondering if it is going to be there on time!

I know I switched compounding pharmacies because I never knew if my thyroid ordered a week before was ready - because she had emergencies. And it is not like insulin - missing a day or two of thyroid doesn't catch up with you for a month, but it is not good to miss a dose and cause fluctuations. It is hard enough to keep it on an even keel as it is. I react to the excipients in drugs so get everything I can compounded. Expensive - 3 month supply is over $150 for a $15 drug as compounding is labour intensive. Fortunately my private insurance that usually only covers generic drugs accepted a letter from my doc and I get 85% paid.

The UK has a pharmacare plan too? They used to talk about it here but it looks as if our new idiot premier is going to cut healthcare funds and allow for profit into the province - two-tiered healthcare after we protected our cherished universal healhcare for so many years.

Good luck with your insulin now and after Brexit!


I am lucky as a diabetic all my prescription medication is supplied for free I get called a medical exemption card for prescription costs. Even if I had to pay its a relatively small cost each item on a script, less than £10 I think ( I have not paid for so long I forget). The counter to,that is of course the restriction on the amount that is supplied each time.

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Sarrriesfan
Posted: Sunday, February 17, 2019 3:18:02 AM

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Just to give a real example of why I do not trust the Governmnet plans that Ozok linked to.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-chris-grayling-cancels-ferry-contract-no-deal-ships-seaborne-freight-dover-calais-a8770976.html

The Transport Secretary has faced calls for him to quit after awarding a £108 million contract for a post-Brexit ferry service to supliment the existing ones that had to be cancelled.

The problem was they company had never run ferries before, had no ships, the mayor of the port they planned to use said it was not suitable and they lifted their terms and conditions on their website from a pizza delivery company.

Strangely enough the boss of a Seaborne Ferries was a friend of the Minister.

I don't trust the Government reassurances, they could not organise a Party in a Brewery.(A cleaned up version of that phrase).

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