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Hope123
Posted: Tuesday, January 16, 2018 12:47:44 AM

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Two Toronto Star articles this morning...

A technical failure almost started a nuclear war back in 1983 because of the atmosphere of distrust between the leaders of Russia and the US. They say it could happen again and the recent Hawaii error should be a wake up call for the US to stop all the recent rhetoric with North Korea and Iran. I have not heard if they upping their nuclear power as Trump wants.

I remember the airplane incident and loss of life but I didn't realize till I read the following article that Reagan and Moscow nearly had a nuclear war in 1983 because of blunders on both sides and Reagan missing a point at a daily briefing. Or forgetting it.

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/analysis/2018/01/14/hawaii-false-alarm-shows-just-how-close-the-line-is-between-mishap-and-nuclear-war.html

"William Perry, a defence secretary under president Bill Clinton, called the false alarm in Hawaii a reminder that “the risk of accidental nuclear war is not hypothetical — accidents have happened in the past, and humans will err again.
Reagan concluded the same, writing in his memoirs: “The KAL incident demonstrated how close the world had come to the nuclear precipice and how much we needed nuclear arms control.”
Mikhail Gorbachev, who soon after took over the Soviet Union, had the same response, later telling the journalist David Hoffman, “A war could start not because of a political decision, but just because of some technical failure.”


https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/01/14/false-alarm-in-hawaii-reveals-an-abdication-of-leadership-by-trump.html

Gorbachev and Reagan reduced their country’s stockpiles and repeatedly sought, though never quite reached, an agreement to banish nuclear weapons from the world.

How could we ever get rid of nukes when countries don't trust each other to begin with? Is it a good idea for the US to get more nukes as Trump wants to do?

It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
thar
Posted: Tuesday, January 16, 2018 4:13:14 AM

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I've read about the occasions where individual people in the USSR made the decision not to react to a scare, even if it meant risking their career or life (and possibly their country.). Because however scared they were, or however indoctrinated they were, they still held on to that humanity that told them to take that chance. I am sure there are far more, unreported. And I can only assume, from the balance if probability, that it happened a fair few times in the US as well.


I was born too late to have felt the paranoia of the Cold War - it all seems so stupid to me, and I have never felt that threat of impending doom that was very real. But I am scared of the North Korean threat because unlike the Russians, Americans, Indians, Pakistanis, China, Iran, even Islamic terrorists, I believe they ate actually capable of believing it is the right thing to do, to launch a nuclear attack. I think that bit of humanity that says 'hold on' might be so brainwashed and beaten down tgat it has been lost. And that is a bit scary!

[Not in a 'we are all going to die' way, just in a 'wouldn't it be a shame if there were a nuclear war, but I can't do much about it today so I will forget about it' kind of way]Whistle

As to the Americans. I think they still have that humanity filter. Whatever the President may spew or whatever the senior generals may growl, I think enough individual people want their families to grow up and survive, not to tip over that edge. But NK? I actually think their people may have lost that moral compass that says no.


But I can't see how more nukes solves any problems except the unemployment issue in the plutonium refining industry!


On a different note, re the Hawaii false alarm scare - I would be very interested to see if there is a resultant spike in divorces, or in births. Whistle
progpen
Posted: Tuesday, January 16, 2018 9:15:40 AM

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I had a very long post all set to go and deleted it. Far too pessimistic. The current occupant of the White House might very easily and with no actual thought, order a nuclear strike as a response to any perceived threat to himself. Behind the scenes there would be what is called a "Come To Jesus Moment" where decision makers and the current occupant's staff would all agree to find a way to belay the strike order.

Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
philips daughter
Posted: Tuesday, January 16, 2018 10:52:58 AM

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You guys have a lot of faith in people who have not ever shown they are any smarter or any more loyal to the citizens of the US than their president. That’s my abridged version of my opinion.
Hope123
Posted: Tuesday, January 16, 2018 11:21:51 AM

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I can't imagine what people in Hawaii felt while thinking: "We're going to die NOW". It is hard to put yourself into that scenario. A few Canadian tourists have tried to explain, but had no words other than to say that they got the heck out of there and are glad to be home. No divorce mentioned by them. Just texts to loved ones that they loved them. They had a couple of vodka shots before they found out it was a false alarm 38 minutes later, and then had another one. We'll see in 9 months re births. Not sure I'd be interested in sex after that scare. Or three vodka shots.

I wonder if it has brought Hawaii's location to the forefront so that tourists may have second thoughts about going there. To paradise. Depends I guess if the taunting of the leaders stops and things cool down.

It seems the TV series "Madam Secretary" is mimicking real and recent US politics. They had what was a supposed sonic attack on an American embassy (nobody knows what happened in Cuba in real life), they accused Russia, the president was angry and decided to attack Russia, and the other officials met and took him out of office before his order could physically be implemented. It turned out it was a freak accident of frequencies colliding (can that happen?) and of course in a TV show, they can solve the problem in an hour. The president had a benign brain tumor pressing on his frontal lobe where judgement occurs.

In the story the president's speech to Americans after they had shrunk his tumor in preparation for surgery as he turned the country over to the VP, praised the officials (I forget the positions of those they had there voting) for making the checks and balances work. It could have been read as a subtle hint for real life.

They delayed the order - just as Progpen mentions might happen in real life. I hope that is how the US system works, that it couldn't happen on impulse, although there could be errors that cause it to fire automatically I guess. Having Nukes really is "playing with fire".

I hope your comments about the US leaders sentiments are correct, Thar. I don't know anything about NK but suspect you might be correct there too.

But I do think and hope that the human will to survive might overcome the brainwashing of at least some of the leaders of both countries. (Even Paul Ryan. Whistle )

I lived through the Cold War but never really took it too seriously except for Kennedy's Bay of Pigs fiasco, but that was over fairly quickly. We just lived our daily lives knowing there was nothing we could do nor nothing to be done if an attack occurred. Of course, we didn't have Internet, Twitter, and Facebook with everybody on it expressing their opinions and stirring fear up. Nor a US president stirring up fear and taunting the opposition either. We didn't have hour long news shows and sensationalism in the papers was not the same. News was really news, not opinions.

Why can't countries try harder to get along and stop treating each other with such suspicion? Why do humans feel it is necessary to make other countries have the same ideologies as themselves and why can't they be happy with the territory they have and not try to rule other countries? Humans need a few thousand more years of better evolution.


It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
progpen
Posted: Wednesday, January 17, 2018 10:06:31 PM

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philips daughter wrote:
You guys have a lot of faith in people who have not ever shown they are any smarter or any more loyal to the citizens of the US than their president. That’s my abridged version of my opinion.


No faith in anyone even remotely associated with the current occupant of the White House or his political party. Just the idea that those people have an instinct for self preservation and starting a nuclear war would conflict with that.

Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Fyfardens
Posted: Thursday, January 18, 2018 3:20:16 AM
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Nearly 40% of Americans approve of Trump's presidency.
Nearly 40% of Americans believe that God created all life in the last ten thousand years.
It would not surprise me to learn that 40% of Americans believe that if Trump ordered a nuclear attack on North Korea (or Iran, or Hati or some other s***hole state) the world would be a better place - and no Americans would suffer.

I speak British English (standard southern, slightly dated).
Hope123
Posted: Thursday, January 18, 2018 11:15:09 AM

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Fyfardens wrote:
Nearly 40% of Americans approve of Trump's presidency.
Nearly 40% of Americans believe that God created all life in the last ten thousand years.
It would not surprise me to learn that 40% of Americans believe that if Trump ordered a nuclear attack on North Korea (or Iran, or Hati or some other s***hole state) the world would be a better place - and no Americans would suffer.


Fyfardens, I think it was Twitter where I read a whole thread about nuclear war being good as it would kill off Democrats. Brick wall

After watching a video of some Americans discussing the logistics of seeing Trump's Twitter war with Martin Luther King on Martin Luther King Day, that thread I mentioned did not surprise me.

It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
will
Posted: Friday, January 19, 2018 6:06:59 AM
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Fyfardens wrote:
Nearly 40% of Americans approve of Trump's presidency.
Nearly 40% of Americans believe that God created all life in the last ten thousand years.
It would not surprise me to learn that 40% of Americans believe that if Trump ordered a nuclear attack on North Korea (or Iran, or Hati or some other s***hole state) the world would be a better place - and no Americans would suffer.


Agreed. Applause

With the current political landscape, shaped as it is by conflicting strains of Abrahamic death cults, it’s sometimes hard to trust one’s faith in humanity.

Most recent Pew research (2013) found that roughly half of all Christians in the U.S believe the return of Christ, the central event in Christian eschatology, will occur within the next 40 years.

Senator Doug Broxson received rapturous applause (pun intended) when he announced, with giddy excitement, that Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital might bring forward a Biblical bloodbath... from which the chosen few are saved, of course. Pray

I suspect the applause, and the Pew poll, reflects a wider political and theological ignorance in the U.S, rather than a general culture of deranged Rapture-ready sociopaths, but it doesn’t paint a pleasant picture. It’s this kind of mentality in other Faiths that has Trump supporters foaming at the mouth.

The last forty years alone has witnessed countless apocalypse-hungry Christian leaders gleefully heralding the imminent mass extinction of all life on Earth. I have no doubt Mike Pence believes he will make the list come Judgement Day, and there is a very real scenario where he could actually bring such an apocalypse about.

Trump might just launch the nuclear arsenal if the button is ever designed with a certain gropeable quality. Eh?


.
philips daughter
Posted: Friday, January 19, 2018 8:29:03 AM

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Fyfardens, Will, I agree.
progpen
Posted: Friday, January 19, 2018 8:39:04 AM

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philips daughter wrote:
Fyfardens, Will, I agree.


I agree with you and Fyfardens as well, and that leaves 60% of us (the actual majority) to fix and clean up after them. Unfortunately, in the US the conservatives have gerrymandered the elections to the point that their minority controls politics for now so the fixing and cleaning up have to be done outside of politics.

Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Fyfardens
Posted: Friday, January 19, 2018 12:06:24 PM
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will wrote:
Pew research (2013)[/url] found that roughly half of all Christians in the U.S believe the return of Christ, the central event in Christian eschatology, will occur within the next 40 years.


Doubtless a few believe he was born again on June 14, 1946. It's not insignificant that He has already partly revealed himself - He wasn't born in one this time round, but has let slip that he is a stable genius.

I speak British English (standard southern, slightly dated).
OnTheVerge
Posted: Saturday, January 20, 2018 3:38:21 AM

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progpen wrote:
philips daughter wrote:
Fyfardens, Will, I agree.


I agree with and Fyfardens as well, and that leaves 60% of us (the actual majority) to fix and clean up after them. Unfortunately, in the US the conservatives have gerrymandered the elections to the point that their minority controls politics for now so the fixing and cleaning up have to be done outside of politics.


The gerrymandering is carried out by the state legislatures, and those delegated by them to proffer these prettily drawn up maps that make 10,000 piece jigsaw puzzles look logical.

There is, however, a glimmer of hope. The US Supreme Court has ruled that the prodigiously gerrymandered map in No.Carolina was illegally gerrymandered for the purpose of political gain. This ruling is unique in that it is the 1st time a state map has been found to be illegal due to POLITICAL bias, as opposed to racial bias!

There are many other states that have extensively used this same type of political gerrymandering. As a result, many more lawsuits are being filed to be heard in federal district courts all over the country!
Applause Dancing Pray Pray Pray


The world will never starve for want of wonders, but only for want of people who wonder.
philips daughter
Posted: Saturday, January 20, 2018 9:00:07 AM

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Sorry to have to inform you but as of Jan. 18 SCOTUS determined that only racial gerrymandering is illegal. They refused to rule on the partisan position.
progpen
Posted: Saturday, January 20, 2018 1:32:25 PM

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And blending this back into the O.P., the US House, Senate and White House have now shown that their malice is only surpassed by their debilitating incompetence. Our latest Republican government shutdown would not have happened if only the Republican party was able to get the White House to stay on task for more than 140 characters and one meeting at a time. The White House has been all over the map, changing their collective mind from one conversation to the next and ensuring that the Republican party is not able to gather behind one plan or idea.

This government shutdown, more than anything else the Republicans have done so far shows that there is no logic, reason or even maturity remaining in the Republican party and so the idea that there is a logical, reasonable or mature grasp of what a nuclear war means is unrealistic at this time. A call from the White House for a nuclear strike could come at any time and for no observable reason and the only way that this order might be countermanded or reversed is if those around the current occupant of the White House are of sound mind and not themselves morally retarded. When I wrote my first comment, I thought there was hope if the call for a nuclear strike came from the White House, but now I do not believe so.

Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Hope123
Posted: Saturday, January 20, 2018 2:31:16 PM

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Progpen, I was wondering what would happen if the order were given while the government is shut down and if that is any worse than when it isn't these days. What exactly gets shut down besides real non essentials?

We watched Schumer live this morning. He said he and Trump have agreed several times and then a couple of hours later the goal post is moved after the extreme right get to the president.

The Democrats offered full or even more funding for the military than what was asked for, other points were addressed and agreed upon, and Trump agreed on DACA and the Children's healthcare when Schumer reluctantly put funding for the wall on the table. It seemed that they had an agreement until Trump called him back a couple hours later with more demands that the extreme right demanded knowing they were deal breakers for the Democrats. How is it that Trump is afraid of the extreme right?

Trump is not a negotiator nor a leader when he did not push his party to accept that deal. It was exactly what Trump asked for last week - the wall for DACA. Plus complete funding for the military. Schumer said that he and Trump are both forthright, he does not have the animus that many have for Trump, and they can do bipartisan deals, but this changing the agreements has been going on for some time - like trying to negotiate with jello. What are the GOP doing anyhow? Why would they even need Trump to push them that this was a good deal?

What a sorry and scary mess, not only for Americans.

It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
Romany
Posted: Saturday, January 20, 2018 3:08:52 PM
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Do the thugs in WH actually know that there is no other government in the world that sticks a "Gone fishin'" sign on the door and just fecks off and leaves the country to stew in their own juices?*

Hasn't a single one of them even considered how this looks to the rest of the world? Do they not realise that the next time they want to kill thousands of civillions in some far-away country in order to introduce them to "Democracy", no-one will be able to swallow that tired old meme again? Former "allies" are not going to be inclined to let them, any more?

I thought I got it for a while. But I'm totally confused and incredulous now because none of this is even sane! How could even Drumph's band of ethically challenged Admin. purposefully hold up their machinations to scorn and ridicule in front of the entire globe? Can they really, hand-on-heart, expect that people and governments aren't seeing any of this? Aren't watching?

And THESE are the ones who bang on about patriotism and their own superiority: and America being "great"?

Yes, I now know it's money and nothing other than money that drives politics in the USA. But even so, don't the owners of that money care about protecting their investment i.e. the good name and reputation of their country? Don't they need contacts and alliances? I find it absolutely like something out of an 18thC satire! These money-grubbing, immoral and completely worthless human beings have sold their country out - but hey, they got considerably more than 30 pieces of silver out of it!

Sorry to get all passionate about it; but I think of all the millions of people over there who are having to live through this fiasco, and my heart breaks into a thousand pieces.

*Yes - Australia sort-of did once. But at the helm there was still the Governor-General and, of course, The Queen. And nobody's wages were stopped. It didn't affect anyone else. The pollies (politicians) has been acting like spoilt kids so they were all sent to the naughty corner to think about it.
progpen
Posted: Saturday, January 20, 2018 4:18:55 PM

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What the US is experiencing now is simply the result of a wealthy sociopath who ran for president of the most powerful country in the world on a bet, very much like L. Ron Hubbard did with Scientology. He was never supposed to have won, so now that he has he is making sure that everyone else pays for each and every one of his mistakes as he throws tantrum after jaw dropping tantrum.

Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
philips daughter
Posted: Saturday, January 20, 2018 7:21:46 PM

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I see this president and his supporters to be the results of 50 years of white backlash. It has been 50 years since the signing of the Fair Housing Act. This was the last part of the Civil Rights Bill. Dr King was the first one to call it out when he said that white people had the idea that minorities were demanding priveledge instead, what we ask for is equal opportunity. These people have an ideaology that is racism wrapped in fanatical religiosity. To not call it what it what it is allows it to retain a sense of righteousness that it doesn’t deserve. Interestingly, Donald and his father were some of the first landlords to be prosecuted under the Fair Housing laws.
Romany
Posted: Saturday, January 20, 2018 8:14:43 PM
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And now, as though his lack of respect for women hasn't been shown enough, he's seeking to overturn Roe V Wade??

I don't expect for even a passing second that he has any idea of the significance of this landmark case. I'm willing to bet money he has never read any of the millions of pages that have been written about it. It goes without saying he'd be pig-ignorant of what Roe V Wade did for American women.

But someone does - they must have popped a note into his cheeseburger - and couldn't be any more transparent about the contempt which this Admin. feels about women. They used the subtlety of a bloody sledgehammer!
philips daughter
Posted: Saturday, January 20, 2018 9:59:13 PM

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Romany, now you see how the autocracy has bought the government and is intent on subjugating the citizens. This topic really belongs in What We Lost Today thread but, yes this is a monumental blow. Today there were Women’s Marches again. I don’t think it is just coincidence he came out with his attack on Roe v Wade today. I wish I could have gone to one of the marches. They had a pretty big one here in San Antonio. I am unable to drive these days because they switching out my seizure meds and I can’t risk a break through.
philips daughter
Posted: Saturday, January 20, 2018 10:46:03 PM

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If you think I exaggerate about the autocracy listen to this; the Huff Post says Paul Ryan, Speaker of the House, the righteous hero of the right received $500,000 contibution from the Koch’s the day after the Tax Bill passed.
Hope123
Posted: Sunday, January 21, 2018 12:04:14 AM

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Women at the head of the table is what is needed.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2018/01/21/womens-marches-highlights-orig-acl.cnn

I particularly liked the sign carried by one woman: Grab them by the midterms!

It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
almo 1
Posted: Sunday, January 21, 2018 2:11:13 AM
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progpen
Posted: Sunday, January 21, 2018 11:14:21 AM

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Hope123 wrote:
Women at the head of the table is what is needed.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2018/01/21/womens-marches-highlights-orig-acl.cnn

I particularly liked the sign carried by one woman: Grab them by the midterms!


There have been an astounding number of women running for office and if the momentum can continue into the elections we can begin to fix what has been so thoroughly broken.

Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Hope123
Posted: Sunday, January 21, 2018 11:58:16 AM

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There were a lot of good men there too, Progpen. It is only a minority who have the wrong attitudes.



Romany, don't be misled by all the antics. He's getting the Repub playbook done for them. Ask FD. Undoing everything Obama did. And he is affecting a lot of foreign policy too.

Progpen's point is well taken. If Repub numbers are to be lowered in 2018 and 2020, the opposition had better get busy. I just hope that underlying misogyny does not defeat the women running. Trump would probably be elected again today using the same electoral system.

Also, the US has shut down their government three times since 1995. Eric Trump selfishly thinks it's good - not for the country - but so people will see how his father is being unfairly impeded with his wonderful policies and blame the Dems, when Schumer explained exactly why negotiations with the WH always fall apart these days.

Miitary spending more than asked for, funding for a wall, and other concessions were not enough for the Repubs to give amnesty to non criminal Dreamers brought as children years ago to the US. What more did they want? The Dems to roll over and expose their bellies?



Well, the title says Goldberg, so yes, that is Whoopi, Almo. I had not heard about her medical marijuana for women venture. You left no comment as to why that might be important here so I'll give mine. Good for her. CBN and THC drops can be very good to quell pain. Men should have to have a period at least once in their lives. It does not mean everyone will be going around smoking or vaping.

It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
Fyfardens
Posted: Sunday, January 21, 2018 12:21:07 PM
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Hope123 wrote:
Men should have to have a period at least once in their lives.


I am eternally grateful that I am male. I envy women many things, but periods are something I don't want to have even one of.

(Don't analyse the grammar of that last clause - the message comes through, I think.)


I speak British English (standard southern, slightly dated).
Hope123
Posted: Sunday, January 21, 2018 3:06:00 PM

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Hi FyFardens.

I'm sure most men are with you. However, I'd never want to be a man either. Good job for both of us. 😀

My husband laughs now but he wasn't so happy when he experienced what many women get post menopausal - hot flashes. They gave him some injections for his aggressive prostate cancer before he got the radiation and they triggered hot flashes. He took a lot of kidding, but not from me.

It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
Fyfardens
Posted: Sunday, January 21, 2018 3:37:45 PM
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Hope123 wrote:
hot flashes


Interesting. They are hot flushes in BrE.


I speak British English (standard southern, slightly dated).
Tovarish
Posted: Sunday, January 21, 2018 8:28:16 PM

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The Blocking of Supply down here is tantamount to calling a re-election or the dissolution of both Upper and Lower Houses of Parliament.

So the ransoming of funds or linking it with another issue would backfire, they would all be out of a job, sometimes that can be a good thing, rub it all out and start again.

Fyfardens, with your %, how many eligible voters chose not to?

We have compulsory voting down here, so really do get what we vote for.

Lotje1000
Posted: Monday, January 22, 2018 3:24:00 AM

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Hope123 wrote:
Women at the head of the table is what is needed.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2018/01/21/womens-marches-highlights-orig-acl.cnn

I particularly liked the sign carried by one woman: Grab them by the midterms!


In Belgian media, a picture from a protest in Seattle popped up with a sign saying "Show us your girth certificate".

And I agree: More women at the table, more racial and cultural diversity would do much good.
Romany
Posted: Monday, January 22, 2018 5:36:21 AM
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My over-all favourite of all the signs I saw over the weekend was the one held by a little girl. It said:

"Build your wall. My generation will knock it down again."

Brilliant on so many levels...as well as reminding us that we are no longer the movers and shakers: as it's done since the beginning of time, a new generation will replace us. And if WE have done our job properly (we, the parents, not "we" as in a current government or administration) the next generation will find different, and hopefully better, solutions to the problems we have left for them.
thar
Posted: Monday, January 22, 2018 7:12:43 AM

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I know this is a bit off-topic, but the government shutdown has been mentioned.
I really have a problem understanding how a problem with government passing a bill can cause people to stop getting paid or departments fro operating.

I am not asking how that happens - obviously there is a system in place. But other countries can go on indefinitely without a government - the country keeps running, people still turn up for work, they still get paid. Belgium managed it for eighteen months! Northern Ireland government broke down (although not everything is devolved) -Germany, Iceland go on hold while coalitions are worked out - but while government may be in a mess, the civil service gets on and does its job of running the country.

I guess my problem is with the philosophical question of how the civil service can be such a hostage to politics, to passing a budget. That is not a criticism, but the follow-on from that is, this has happened before. Once the problem became apparent, how come nobody had the nous to say 'we can't have this happen again, let's decouple them, let's fix that problem'. That is what I don't get. The political inertia. So it all happens again.

Is it to do with the reverence with which the political system in the US is treated - that changing something that is in the Constitution or just 'the system' is akin to treason, or at the very least unAmerican? And how much has that attitude to do with the voters' verdict on their 'politicians' (Not voting, or Trump)?



Jyrkkä Jätkä
Posted: Monday, January 22, 2018 8:03:01 AM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 9/21/2009
Posts: 41,276
Neurons: 363,896
Location: Helsinki, Southern Finland Province, Finland
Shawn Phillips - Mr President

A song from the 70's but still actual.


In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.
Fyfardens
Posted: Monday, January 22, 2018 8:10:02 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/16/2017
Posts: 333
Neurons: 4,637
Jyrkkä Jätkä wrote:
A song from the 70's but still actual.


Your normally impeccable English has deserted you on this occasion. Unlike its counterpart in many languages. 'actual' does not mean 'current/relevant' in English.


I speak British English (standard southern, slightly dated).
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