I read an article the described a potential "perfect financial storm" that is predicted to occur in the next couple of years:

The four horsemen are:

1. Anemic US economy saddled with debt slides back into recession, possibly ignited by a debt crisis.

2. Japan remains stagnant.

3. The Chinese economy slows.

4. The European debt crisis worsens.


The person (whose name I forget) that wrote the piece suggested 2013 as the target year, and laid odds at 1 in 3 that this nightmare might come to pass.

It seems plausible, but rather unlikely to me. My brother reminded me that this guy (and I STILL cannot recall his name) is the same person that predicted the Dow Jones would hit 30,000 awhile back...so, grain of salt applies to the story.


I also suggest that:

A. No one knows where the next innovation, the next wave will come from that could engergize the world's creaky economy. There may not be anything brewing, but, I'm optimistic that mankind's ability to adapt and to tap talent and vision may save us from economic rust.

B. Right now, about 400 million Chinese have entered the middle class. That leaves more than 600 million on the outside looking in. I doubt that China's growth will slow too much too soon. There is a lot to be done. These are motivated and hard-working people, they want prosperity. One caveat is that somewhere between the 400 millionth plus one and the billionth addition to the Chinese middle class, the western model of consumption will need to be modified. The planet literally lacks the resources for the western lifestyle to spread much further among the world's billions. In the long term, the planet already cannot sustain the rate of resource consumption we already have.

C. Don't forget Brazil, Argentina, and Chile. These are likely to be powerful engines of growth in the world. Also, India is a growing economic powerhouse. Maybe if North America and Europe stumble, and China catches a cold, these economies will be the engines of growth. One can hope.


What are your views on the world's economic outlook? Is the glass half full, or half empty? I'm speaking in terms of the next 5 to 15 years. After that, all bets are off. There is a brick wall of resource (especially fossil fuels like oil and coal) shortages, and the increasingly radical and disruptive weather patterns brought on by climate change. At that point, economic displacement and chaos may be beyond our immediate control.

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"Be without fear in the face of your enemies. Be brave and upright that God may love thee. Speak the truth always, even if it leads to your death. Safeguard the helpless, and do no wrong". (Knight's Oath, Kingdom of Heaven)

Well, my response is going to be a little esoteric.... Apologies in advance for that.

I think we are right about half-way or two thirds of the way through a period that is most comparative to the era of colonialism and massive, quasi-governments like the East India Trading Company. At present we are mired in a kind of corporate feudalism in which there is an aristocratic class of self-proclaimed "executives" who really don't have any jobs at all other than to act as figureheads. These folks have adopted a philosophical construct that is very strange in order to justify their positions. It's quasi-religious in tone: markets are in and of themselves moral. Any "corruption" of a market is self-correcting by the market itself. It's a very strange philosophy, most of which comes out of the Chicago school of economics in the last 40 years or so.

The rationalizations often change, but the basic push-pull between corporate power and individual rights remains cyclical. The highpoint of corporate feudalism appears to have been about 7 years ago, and we're dealing with the ramifications of that feudalism now. However, the ebb of that power structure will take another 10 years most likely. That shift is often presented as a collapse or anarchy or some other such perjorative, but in reality it is no such thing. It's simply the diffusion of about 10% of the economy into smaller, more democratically organized units. In the 70's and 80's this was often called "downsizing" or some other such euphamism. During such periods, much of the economy of scale transfers into what some economics call shadow areas--but really it just goes into areas unrecognized by the blunt tool that is modern economics. There really is no less economic activity, but it is less easily tracked and therefore often considered problematic to governments and economists alike because those two groups are the sorts of folks who think that if they can't control something, let alone even monitor it, then it must be BAD....

However, the real consumption and commerce of real people doesn't shift much at all. People still eat as much as they did before, have as much leisure, take as many baths, etc. However, their access to financial markets change and growth occurs at a more real rate rather than at the rate described by the push-pull of inflationary pressures and the extended fictional mathematics that is study of Economics. Arguably, things like research progress more slowly as "real projects" are implemented. Again, this is more of a cyclic change than anything good or bad.

So, the long and short of this, is that we are going to be entering a period of more "real economics" in the next 10-20 years in which implementation is more the emphasis rather than the extended profiteering on real goods and services that occurs in the period of corporate feudalism and the financial sleight of hand that is used to justify it. Economically, that's "bad" and it can be if it goes too far, but in reality very little will change for most people, and the regular progress of economic growth will continue if at a less happily measureable and controlled rate by those who style themsleves leaders and scholars of such things.

The current Global Financial Crisis which began in 2008 has run for 3 years and will run for another 4 years.
2008 + 7 years = 2015
The restructuring that takes place during this time will need to focus on eliminating the "executive irresponsibility" that caused the crisis.

This is according to an oracle who has spoken truthfully on some matters of importance in the past.

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Job 33:15 "In a dream, in a vision of the night, When deep sleep falls upon men, In slumberings upon the bed;" Theology 101 "If He doesn't know everything then He isn't God."

I am doing my part to encourage a rational economy by living within my means. I no longer allow advertising to influence my spending and instead ask myself if the product is a "need" or a "want". If I need it, I acquire the item as cheaply as possible. If it is a want, it goes on my Christmas/birthday list or I forget about it.

This spending habit allows me to stay debt-free (except for my mortgage).

Cat

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The fatal pedagogical error is to throw answers, like stones, at the heads of those who have not yet asked the questions. – Paul Tillich