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Bank of England prepares for Brexit. Options
progpen
Posted: Sunday, June 05, 2016 11:53:14 AM

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I'd thought that all of the talk about a Brexit was just bluster and posturing. Now I'm thinking it could actually happen.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/05/bank-of-england-brexit-preparations-uk-banks

I don't care how any of this would affect the banks or multinational corporations, but I see that it could temporarily harm the lower and middle class. Long term I don't see it as a bad thing as it will give the Brits more autonomy in dealing with their economy.

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. ― Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
Drag0nspeaker
Posted: Sunday, June 05, 2016 12:57:31 PM

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Hi progpen.

Yes - it's a very real possibility.

There are real advantages to leaving and there are real advantages to staying in the EU, even as it is today. (There were more advantages to being in the EEC as it was when the UK joined!)

However, there are a LOT of distorted 'facts' and downright lies (using statistics to lie, often) from both sides.

Did you know that immigrants who came into Scotland via the EU pay almost a hundred times more taxes than the welfare payments claimed by immigrants who came into Scotland via the EU? (I may have the figure slightly wrong, but it's that order of magnitude).
Ah - I've just seen that The Mirror reports similar for the whole UK.

Did you know that if we stay in the EU, we will be forced to pay Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey almost two billion pounds (three billion dollars) to persuade them to join too? (This was reported on the BBC)


Wyrd bið ful aræd - bull!
Hope123
Posted: Sunday, June 05, 2016 2:07:27 PM

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Drago, so you are saying in your first point it is good to stay, and in the second it is obviously not? Just clarifying that I understand.


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eu-migrants-pay-more-tax-4570472



Equality is when you see a person - not a label.
progpen
Posted: Sunday, June 05, 2016 6:00:31 PM

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Hi Drago. Is the payment to Turkey related to the money they have asked for to help pay for the processing of immigrants through to the EU or is that separate?

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. ― Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
progpen
Posted: Sunday, June 05, 2016 6:09:01 PM

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From a US perspective, I see an EU with the UK as being a much stronger economic competitor to the US. If the EU loses the UK, I feel that both become less competition to the US.

Now I don't know how important that is in the grand scheme, but from my own perspective, I want Europe to be strong enough to lead the US economically. The US has not done a good (or even average) job of being an economic leader, and right now everyone is absolutely terrified of China and Asia in general. I doubt that any of that fear is warranted, but I feel that the US would be more comfortable with a stronger EU than it would be with a stronger Asia.

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. ― Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
thar
Posted: Monday, June 06, 2016 3:25:01 AM

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Basically the money to Turkey is a bribe to 'take care of the problem!'

The thing that gets me about the debate is how insulting it is to all the political systems and people involved.
None of the arguments are about who can be trusted - it is all about who is the least damaging and undemocratic. Really depressing.
The 'remain' camp seem to be relying on three points. One is that the EU is so vindictive and spiteful that if Britain leaves the EU will do its best to punish them economically.
Two, that European laws are required to protect rights, wildlife, air quality - everything! The democratic idea that if British people want those laws they have a parliament to make them, does not seem to factor. They want someone else to do it for them. They basically don't trust the British voters.
And three, that the NHS and British economy relies on EU workers, and that if Britain leaves the EU these will somehow disappear.Phht Eh? The idea that any post-exit government could actually allow foreigners to work, with appropriate paperwork, seems to be too complicated for this debate. I mean, it is not like any other non-EU country has EU nationals working there with work visas! d'oh!
pedro
Posted: Monday, June 06, 2016 8:37:22 AM

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http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

Thisis oddschecker comparing a whole range of bookmakers' odds on Brexit and Stay. They all conduct their own straw polls and there is little variation in the prices. Follow where the money goes.

For what it's worth, I liken leaving such an organisation, after 40 odd years as members, to decommissioning a nuclear power plant. It will take a lot longer and cost a lot more than anyone has bargained for. On top of that there are logistical issues about current Euro laws. What is their status once we have left? Whether we do or do not relinquish them they may all have to be debated and voted on.

As is often the case when it comes to a vote people will opt for safety and I think the bookies have got it right.


All good ideas arrive by chance- Max Ernst
thar
Posted: Monday, June 06, 2016 1:41:16 PM

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Well, going back to the title.
A diversion into the currency part of banks, not the fiscal planning.

Putting Churchill on the new fiver from the Bank of England is not exactly celebrating Britain's high opinion of European 'union', is it. Whistle Whistle






He wanted a united Europe with free travel - but I don't think he would have taken kindly to the 'threats of leaving' rationale currently being touted!

But that is England. Well-known for being parochial and anti-European. Surely the rest of the UK is far more pan-European.....Whistle

Bank of Scotland has Sir Walter Scott
Royal Bank of Scotland has Lord Ilay (?) 3rd Duke of Argyll
Clydesdale has Robbie Burns
Northern bank, since it had all its money stolen, is now owned by the Danes, and has JB Dunlop on the ten pounds (can't you get five pound notes in Northern Ireland?)
First Trust Bank celebrates the wrecking of the Spanish Armada, with the sinking of the Girona!
Bank of Ireland has a distillery
Bank of Ulster has Belfast Harbour

I think all the UK banks seem quite ready for Brexit! Whistle



Quote:
La Girona had anchored in Killybegs harbour, Donegal, for repairs to her rudder while two other ships had been lost on attempting to enter the harbour. About 800 survivors from two other Spanish shipwrecks were taken aboard at Killybegs, from La Rata Santa Maria Encoronada, which ran aground in Blacksod Bay off the coast of County Mayo, and Duquesa Santa Ana, which went aground at Loughros Mor Bay, Donegal.

With the assistance of an Irish chieftain, MacSweeney Bannagh, La Girona was repaired and set sail for Scotland on 25 October, with 1,300 men on board, including Alonso Martinez de Leyva. Lough Foyle was cleared, but then a gale struck and La Girona was driven ashore at Lacada Point, near Dunluce in County Antrim on the night of 28 October 1588. Of the estimated 1300 people on board, there were nine survivors, who were sent on to Scotland by Sorley Boy MacDonnell; 260 bodies were washed ashore.[1]


Ah, the joys of Irish history and European union! Whistle

Ironically, the only banknotes which which display European ties are Jersey and Guernsey - where the bank notes are trilingual - eg États de Jersey, Êtats d'Jèrri, States of Jersey; five pounds, cinq livres; They depict the Duchy of Normandy! And, guess what, they are not in the EU! Whistle Whistle

But, when you think about it - the country has at least 9 different currencies that are legal tender, if you count the CI. It really does not do integration!
Sarrriesfan
Posted: Wednesday, June 08, 2016 10:31:19 AM

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pedro wrote:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

Thisis oddschecker comparing a whole range of bookmakers' odds on Brexit and Stay. They all conduct their own straw polls and there is little variation in the prices. Follow where the money goes.

For what it's worth, I liken leaving such an organisation, after 40 odd years as members, to decommissioning a nuclear power plant. It will take a lot longer and cost a lot more than anyone has bargained for. On top of that there are logistical issues about current Euro laws. What is their status once we have left? Whether we do or do not relinquish them they may all have to be debated and voted on.

As is often the case when it comes to a vote people will opt for safety and I think the bookies have got it right.


The bookmakers also base their current odds on an analysis of how the betting is going at any one time, in order to cover their losses. If one outcome is taking more money that would lead to a high pay out for them they can make the odds on the other outcome more attractive in order to pull in more bets on that result even if they consider it more unlikely.
Bookmaking odds are not the same as political polling, and given the failures that polling agencies had in the last UK General Election I am not sure we can trust those entirely either.

I lack the imagination for a witty signature.
progpen
Posted: Thursday, June 09, 2016 8:03:24 AM

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Here is another point of view that I had not considered before. If the UK leaves, Sir John Major and Tony Blair say they are worried that the UK could break up.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36486016

I can see an exit to be destabilizing, but would it be enough to make Scotland leave the UK?

Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. ― Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
towan52
Posted: Thursday, June 09, 2016 9:49:08 AM

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No surprise about John Major or Tony Blair coming out against Brexit; they were/are both committed to the EU. Somewhat surprising in John Major as his government presided over the Exchange Rate Mechanism debacle in 1992. An event that was (monetarily) more expensive than the first gulf war. I have quite a bit of respect for John Major (he was my MP for a while). He dragged himself up into the highest political office in the UK after having to leave grammar school to help with family finances. No university education, but progressed swiftly in the banking industry while becoming involved in local, regional then national politics. Edwina Curry though?

As far as Brexit is concerned, put very simply IMO. The UK will be economically vulnerable for a period of time but should look on this as an opportunity to broaden its market for export and work hard. The plus side is that the UK will regain its sovereignty and can determine its own destiny. It is unlikely that all other EU countries will cease trade with the UK - this would be "cutting off their noses to spite their faces". UK services and products will still be in demand if quality and competitiveness are maintained and improved. Exit will be a huge opportunity to cut bureaucracy, corruption and waste.

"Today I was a hero. I rescued some beer that was trapped in a bottle"
Sarrriesfan
Posted: Thursday, June 09, 2016 9:58:58 AM

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progpen wrote:
Here is another point of view that I had not considered before. If the UK leaves, Sir John Major and Tony Blair say they are worried that the UK could break up.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36486016

I can see an exit to be destabilizing, but would it be enough to make Scotland leave the UK?


Not in itself, Progpen but as Scottish Nationalists see Scotland as a much more socially democratic country more in line with the ideals of other EU members than other parts of the U.K. it could lead to them thinking they are more alike with the EU than England. This just adds fuel to the fire in what is still a simmering debate on Scotland leaving the Union which is still ongoing despite the recent referendum result.

I lack the imagination for a witty signature.
pedro
Posted: Wednesday, June 22, 2016 5:23:26 AM

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Oe day to go and the 'Stay' odds have shortened. Sadly this is probably due to the support of the football league rather than any rational thought.

I think I might toss a coin and then abstain. Whistle

All good ideas arrive by chance- Max Ernst
Tovarish
Posted: Wednesday, June 22, 2016 6:43:50 AM

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I hope all goes well for the UK tomorrow and that you Brits pull the right rein, which ever rein that may be..
Tovarish
Posted: Thursday, June 23, 2016 3:17:49 AM

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I didn't realise until tonight, but if you are in the UK and are a member of the Commonwealth you can vote, amazing.

The Aussies in the UK were looking for the sausage sizzle, not a polling booth custom?
Sarrriesfan
Posted: Thursday, June 23, 2016 6:57:59 AM

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Tovarish wrote:
I didn't realise until tonight, but if you are in the UK and are a member of the Commonwealth you can vote, amazing.

The Aussies in the UK were looking for the sausage sizzle, not a polling booth custom?

It's illegal to offer food at a political event during elections in the UK.
A group of French people came to London to campaign for the remain side yesterday with letters and croissants, they had planned to give them to people as a gesture of good will. They were told they they could not give away the food so instead they donated them to a homeless shelter.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/operation-croissant-french-anglophiles-pen-love-letters-to-brits/

I lack the imagination for a witty signature.
Drag0nspeaker
Posted: Thursday, June 23, 2016 12:08:00 PM

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I don't know about the Bank of England, but I see the Financial Times have an agenda . . .



Wyrd bið ful aræd - bull!
Maryam Dad
Posted: Friday, June 24, 2016 5:33:59 AM

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pedro wrote:
Oe day to go and the 'Stay' odds have shortened. Sadly this is probably due to the support of the football league rather than any rational thought.

I think I might toss a coin and then abstain. Whistle


A bad day for football league.
I can see someone would pay £55M for a Raheem Sterling or Francis Jeffers.

Kindness is a mark of faith. and whoever is not kind has no faith.
Tovarish
Posted: Friday, June 24, 2016 5:39:06 AM

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The Australian Stock Market today, following the Brexit vote, lost $AUD56 billion on stocks and shares, and the English pound plummeted.

It will be interesting to watch from afar, long live Democracy!
IMcRout
Posted: Friday, June 24, 2016 6:21:23 AM

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Sorry, Britain. May you have a few waves left to rule. Silenced

I totally take back all those times I didn't want to nap when I was younger. (Anon)
jessaragen
Posted: Wednesday, September 07, 2016 4:34:38 AM

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I am interested in this issue - property prices in London after Brexit. KPMG predicted that prices would drop by 5% nationally. But the contrary happened. The weak pound attracted foreign investors and now we enjoy even higher prices.
And it seems like the interest rate drop will do the same
Hope123
Posted: Wednesday, September 07, 2016 5:48:19 PM

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jessaragen wrote:
I am interested in this issue - property prices in London after Brexit. KPMG predicted that prices would drop by 5% nationally. But the contrary happened. The weak pound attracted foreign investors and now we enjoy even higher prices.
And it seems like the interest rate drop will do the same


Hi Jess. Foreign investment may be good in the short term, but Vancouver just put a 15% tax on foreign real estate investment to cool the market. Ordinary Canadian citizens can no longer afford to buy property in Toronto and Vancouver because foreign investors have pushed prices so high.

Equality is when you see a person - not a label.
Drag0nspeaker
Posted: Thursday, September 08, 2016 5:47:47 AM

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This does, however, show that the 'scare tactics' - "Foreign investors will all move to Brussels" was a lie.


Wyrd bið ful aræd - bull!
jessaragen
Posted: Thursday, September 08, 2016 7:17:14 AM

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Hope123 wrote:
jessaragen wrote:
I am interested in this issue - property prices in London after Brexit. KPMG predicted that prices would drop by 5% nationally. But the contrary happened. The weak pound attracted foreign investors and now we enjoy even higher prices.
And it seems like the interest rate drop will do the same


Hi Jess. Foreign investment may be good in the short term, but Vancouver just put a 15% tax on foreign real estate investment to cool the market. Ordinary Canadian citizens can no longer afford to buy property in Toronto and Vancouver because foreign investors have pushed prices so high.


Oh. To my thinking China boosted such property markets as Canada and Australia or New Zealand. Vancouver is in chaos because of Chinese property investors. Canada is the fifth most popular country with Chinese property investors who are interested in purchasing condos for their children near universities. As a result, single-detached homes first move further into luxury budget territory leaving first-time buyers with funds enough for a condo and now we see what is going on.
jessaragen
Posted: Monday, September 12, 2016 10:50:56 AM

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