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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 5/21/2009
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Can any of our economic gurus predict the effects of the Japan disaster on global economy? I have heard reports that since structural damage is limited the only real effect will be on energy prices. I suppose it will take a while to assess the full extent of damage but should we be bracing ourselves for more hard times?
"Millions long for immortality who don't know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon" Suzanne Ertz
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Rank: Advanced Member
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Location: the city by the bay
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In short, yes.
This is a country that built nuclear plants so they would be more energy efficient. The plants are now, depending on the news you hear or read, having a slight meltdown, being cooled with salt water, etc. They have already started evacuating nearby people and they are giving them iodine tablets. There are also rolling blackouts to help with their energy crisis. 2.5 million are without electricity. And the weather has snow in the forecast.
I don't think the gurus can predict however much they babble on the telly.
I have had the best news from BBC, CNN International and reading Reuters.
I was watching CNN yesterday whilst, Bill Nye the Science Guy was trying to explain what he thought was happening with the reactors and a chemical that had been allegedly released into the air......and as he was explaining he was interuppted with an............ooppss we need to stop you there as we have some breaking news, which were more pictures and a commercial. Shut him up right proper.
Hard times are a coming. I just looked at the CIA site to see exactly what Japan imported/exported in regards to fuel and other commodities.
My heart and prayers go out to these people. I just heard this morning they had only half an hour between the quake and the tsunami. Which isn't a lot of time to prepare and leave. 
I thought tsuami's took longer? The earth is 10cm off it's axis and there has been a shift of 2.4 meters in Japan. The axis part is correct the rest I figured I am tired and hopefully heard wrong.peace out, >^,,^<
The poor object to being governed badly, whilst the rich object to being governed at all. G.K. Chesterton
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Rank: Advanced Member
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A good link to tsunamis here. The epicentre was close to the coast- hence the lack of warning. Once it has hit the ocean it is quite predictable. You have a fair idea of when it will hit Chile for example because the reverse happened when there was a quake near there(I think this was an old one rather than last year's). http://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/tsunami3.htm
"Millions long for immortality who don't know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon" Suzanne Ertz
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Rank: Advanced Member
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Apart from the financial costs of all the devastation, and the insurance costs, I think the area hit was a car producing area.
So if the car plants are not working, the knock-on effect on the multitude of different suppliers, who operate on rapid supply to one particular maker, could be very damaging to the economy, apart from the loss of exports.
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I'm an authority on this of no kind but it's an intriguing subject.  I wonder how much of an effect even a complete disintegration of the Japanese economy can have on the global one; Japan is quite an isolated country economically, but on the other hand it has a huge gross domestic product. I can be mistaken but I think its export makes for 9ish % of the world's (which is quite a bit), and 13% of its own GDP (which is not so much). Three quarters of that GDP consist of services, which is not export. And Japan also does about 5% of the world's importing. Would the country suddenly disappear (theoretically) I would suppose that cars, bikes, and computers would become more expensive and the US would suffer economically for losing a customer. Japan had already been unable to pay for its expenses without those inflicted on it by the earthquake of last week (it has a huge public debt and budget deficit and a shrinking labour force); so reform has long been necessary. But it can do that: taxes are low, living standards very high, companies can increase their productivity by investing overseas and by capital deepening and decrease costs by merging and persuading people into the labour force. So however great the assault on Japan's economy the earthquake will constitute, my barely informed guess is that Japan will cope by adapting.
The opposite of hatred is love; the opposite of tyranny is love; the opposite of censorship is love; the opposite of evil is love; the opposite of politics is love; the opposite of war is love; the opposite of god is love.–– Salman RushdieBroadly speaking, it is held that getting money is good and spending money is bad. Seeing that they are two sides of one transaction, this is absurd; one might as well maintain that keys are good, but keyholes are bad. Whatever merit there may be in the production of goods must be entirely derivative from the advantage to be obtained by consuming them. –Bertrand RussellNever believe a liar. Papa, angry people burn our home.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 12/28/2009
Posts: 2,466
Points: 7,414
Location: the city by the bay
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pedro wrote:A good link to tsunamis here. The epicentre was close to the coast- hence the lack of warning. Once it has hit the ocean it is quite predictable. You have a fair idea of when it will hit Chile for example because the reverse happened when there was a quake near there(I think this was an old one rather than last year's). http://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/tsunami3.htm Thank you so much for the above chart. It is an interesting read, very.
I also watched a programme least evening about Tsumanis between Japan and the Cascade Mountain Range or Cascadia. There was a gentleman from Japan reading from a very old book which recorded the last largest Tsumani to hit Japan happened, ?? January, 1700. *(I can't remember the exact date, sorry)*
There is another, Tsunami programme, on the Science Channel this evening @ 5:00 pst and it is repeated later this evening.
>^,,^<
The poor object to being governed badly, whilst the rich object to being governed at all. G.K. Chesterton
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Rank: Advanced Member
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Location: iceland
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sorry-lost in editing, to be revisited
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/18/2009
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8. Japan Faces Threat of RecessionWith hopes diminishing that Japan can recover quickly from the earthquake, economists now say that the country has to worry about falling into another recession. The yen is rising fast against the dollar, and on Tuesday alone, $600 billion was lost on the stock market. By the year's end, economists predict that Japan could lose $188 billion U.S.—roughly 3 percent of the country's GDP. "Japan will fall into a temporal recession," Credit Agricole's chief economist for Japan asserted this week. There are also concerns that blackouts and a "manufacturing bottleneck" could prevent companies from getting back in business, and even spill over into foreign economies. "It is hard to know how long these disruptions will persist—but they are an added factor driving down GDP," Tom Taylor, an economist at National Australia Bank, told Reuters. While Japan is no longer "the world's factory," it is a major supplier of computer and car parts, and analysts predict Japanese car prices could rise by as much as $1,000 in coming days. "People will be surprised by how fast prices will rise," an auto analyst told the AFP. Reuters | Thursday, March 17, 2011 http://slatest.slate.com/id/2288650/?v=1#8There. Could be worse.
The opposite of hatred is love; the opposite of tyranny is love; the opposite of censorship is love; the opposite of evil is love; the opposite of politics is love; the opposite of war is love; the opposite of god is love.–– Salman RushdieBroadly speaking, it is held that getting money is good and spending money is bad. Seeing that they are two sides of one transaction, this is absurd; one might as well maintain that keys are good, but keyholes are bad. Whatever merit there may be in the production of goods must be entirely derivative from the advantage to be obtained by consuming them. –Bertrand RussellNever believe a liar. Papa, angry people burn our home.
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