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One map shows why Trump's trade fight with Canada could end in disaster Options
Posted: Tuesday, June 12, 2018 12:50:13 PM

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Joined: 3/23/2015
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Location: Burlington, Ontario, Canada

Unfortunately i don't have the expertise to make the map smaller for the forum but it is on the link so Americans can check to see to where their state exports the most. 32 are to Canada, then there's 6 exporting to Mexico, making the total exporting 38 tied to NAFTA.

Business Insider quote:
President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau engaged in a war of words after the G7 summit.
Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, and Trudeau's promise to hit back, was the source of the conflict.
The fight could have serious economic consequences, since Canada is the US's top trade partner and the largest export market for 32 states.

Trump has started a trade war with Canada. He came to the G7 spoiling for a fight and he has made Trudeau a hero to Canadians with all parties and the public backing him. There is no way Trudeau can appear to waffle or make any concessions at all now. The US sells more dairy products here than they buy - the U.S. actually has a 5-to-1 surplus in dairy trade with Canada
and the US pays no tariffs on Canadian dairy. Yet that is Trump's focus because one dairy farmer wrote to him last year, complaining about Canada. Another Washington farmer has publicly said America's dairy problem is that it produces too much milk and it should be like Canada that controls how much milk is produced, which is the bee in Trump's bonnet.

The tariffs against the US responding to those placed on steel 25% and aluminum 10% were not placed till July 1, too optimistically giving Trump time to change his attitude. Canadians are now calling for them to take effect immediately. Trudeau is a very patient prudent man with how he handling this attack. A trade war has been started by the US.

The facts show there is no deficit with Canadian trade, but if there is a deficit with China, America has to either produce more or buy less. Those are the only choices. With the American economy being at full capacity and not able to produce more goods, then Trump, while trying to bring jobs back, is forcing people to buy less by making prices go up for Americans. Made in America (or Canada) always costs more and all people want the cheapest for value they can get which means cheap labor off shore or in Mexico.

This is a serious issue for Americans and Canadians yet many are going on rhetoric instead of facts.

Every American who thinks this trade war is going to hurt American jobs and their economy should be communicating with their representatives. Congress can stop him IF they want.

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Posted: Wednesday, June 13, 2018 12:36:40 AM
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Location: Stockton, California, United States
Hope: thanks for posting map. As a Californian with 2 Dem senators and a Dem congressman, I know my views on tariffs are protected, but others who have Rep representation may find this very useful. An aside: I wish I knew what Nevada sells to tiny Switzerland for it to be the main importer of that state (maybe silver...or dirt since that state is one barren dessert?)

Good to see Canadians rallying around Trudeau. He really did make a temperate, forthright, and expected state about US tariffs against your country. People are joking about us declaring war on mild-mannered Canada, as it's so unlikely, but it's a reality with these tariffs. Most elected GOPers are being fairly silent --- had this been Obama or Clinton they'd be howling like stuck pigs --- except for a few brave ones, McCain and a few who aren't running for re-election. Cowardice and lack of principle abound, while farmers and manufacturers in the US are the ones badly harmed. No better ally in war, peace, and import/export than Canada (and for my state, Mexico). People in the US need to get a handle that Trump is not really a Republican (Republicans are normally free-traders and pro military alliances), that he's a cult of himself, pulling people from all parties that felt victimized (often incorrectly) and saw him as he sees himself "I'm the only one who can save you." Je doesn't admit mistakes, so I think a lot of us (consumers and producers) will be hurt.

I may be putting in a new HVAC system later this summer and hearing that tariffs are set to raise the cost 10-20% for the metal used to manufacture them, so I'm rabid. Some foods will be going up, price of cars, building materials, etc., while producers of products for export to affected countries will be losing deals, and thus affecting American jobs and incomes. Stupid, but there you go.
Posted: Wednesday, June 13, 2018 8:35:21 AM

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Location: Haddington, Scotland, United Kingdom
Thank you Hope for the link and the map. The threat of a trade war laying waste to our economy may loom over our heads, but I can actually see a silver lining in this. Local sustainable economies are resistant to this kind of attack so there is the possibility that the concept of the local sustainable economy will catch on in places open to the change.

Edit: I do acknowledge that the chance of that happening is low and that a US trade war with the rest of the world (what the White House is after) will decimate the US economy.

Nolite te bastardes carborundorum
Posted: Wednesday, June 13, 2018 11:45:39 AM

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Joined: 3/23/2015
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Location: Burlington, Ontario, Canada
Proggy and Mactoria,

It comes out now - what Trump didn't like is the implication he's a bully. Trump vindictively says he'll punish all Canadians with auto tariffs, the heart of our economy, because Trudeau said, "Canada won't be pushed around". He has already targeted Canada's small economy the hardest - 4 times that of China which is by far the biggest country and the biggest transgressor. Why is that?

Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister, Chrysta Freeland says Canada "expected some drama from the US". She is one cool lady. Freeland heads to the US again this week, so we'll all just have to see how this plays out.

I just wish more Trumpists would get the facts. Instead with the information environment in America right now, in 48 hours Trump has convinced his supporters that Trudeau is a backstabbing enemy and Kim is a heroic statesman.

Both democrats and republicans are afraid of Trump, and the American media failed on this trade issue too, focusing once again that his behaviour is "unheard of" instead of on the real danger of disrupted economies. He would win - but not without damage to both countries. Trump with his tunnel vision latches onto one aspect without ever seeing the whole picture.

But I do not understand his thinking anyhow with other countries because a trade surplus is not a bad thing all by itself. It just means you buy more stuff from them than they buy from you. But if you are the richest guy in town you are going to buy more from everyone than they buy from you - America has one of the biggest, if not the biggest, economy in the world.

The silver lining I see is that with the US$ rising as interest rates are put up by the Feds, and the loonie falling, that will help CDN exporters somewhat. It will also deter Canadians from going to the US, and we will see more American tourists here, affecting both tourist industries. That's what happens when our dollar falls which is already happening.

I read an article in "Foreign Policy". The author goes back into history for explanations - it is worth the read. One point he does not make - the tariff on US milk is only after a quota has been reached. Trump is disrupting both economies over a tiny business like milk. Trump is targeting Canada's supply management system for dairy and poultry as unfair, even though the U.S. runs a $333 million trade surplus with Canada on dairy and a $1.9 billion trade surplus in agriculture and agi-food.

"Do the people you care about love you back?" Warren Buffett's measure of success
Posted: Wednesday, June 13, 2018 11:53:39 AM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 3/23/2015
Posts: 8,510
Neurons: 48,696
Location: Burlington, Ontario, Canada
You might be interested in the article I mentioned above so I decided to add the link and an excerpt. The title is a wee bit "sky is falling" but he makes some good points.

The West Will Die So That Trump Can Win

"Yes, as Trump has said repeatedly, Canada imposes large import tariffs on milk (as the United States does on sugar). Yet dairy is a trivial portion of U.S. exports to Canada, less than 0.2 percent, and the United States exports northward more than twice as much dairy as it imports. Moreover, the average U.S. tariff rate, at 1.6 percent, is twice Canada’s, and the United States runs a trade surplus with it.

Examining Trump’s latest tariffs on steel, aluminum, washing machines, and solar panels, however, I find that Canada is by far the hardest-hit nation. Over $12 billion in Canadian exports have been targeted. And the European Union is No. 2, at just under $8 billion.

What about China, a vastly more serious transgressor of trade rules and norms? Trump has targeted only $3.5 billion of its goods — less than half that of the EU, and only a quarter that of Canada. To French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that the G-7 collaborate on the “China problem” of steel subsidies, intellectual property expropriation, and the like, Trump reportedly replied that the EU was “worse than China” on trade.

Two generalizations may reasonably be drawn. One is that the Trump administration is not making trade policy based on economic facts. It could be doing so haphazardly, but it would appear more likely that it is sending a message to long-standing allies that business as usual is over."

"Do the people you care about love you back?" Warren Buffett's measure of success
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